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A pair of SEC versus Big Ten matchups highlight Friday's Sweet 16 schedule in the NCAA Tournament 2025, with the Ole Miss Rebels facing the Michigan State Spartans in the earlier tip. Michigan State (29-6), the No. 2 seed in the South Region, defeated New Mexico in the second round after easily disposing of Bryant in its March Madness opener. The Rebels, (24-11) are a 6-seed and upset No. 3 Iowa State in the second round after beating North Carolina in their tourney opener. The Spartans won the lone previous matchup between the two which came in the 1999 NCAA Tournament.

Tipoff is at 7:09 p.m. ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The Spartans are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Ole Miss vs. Michigan State odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 144.5. Before making any Michigan State vs. Ole Miss picks, check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine expert Bruce Marshall.

Marshall enters this matchup on a 96-65 roll (+2391) run on his college basketball picks. He's also excelled with picks in games involving the Ole Miss Rebels and is 10-2 (+772) on his last 12 picks in Ole Miss games. Anybody who's followed his picks could be way up.

Now, he has set his sights on Ole Miss vs. Michigan State and just locked his March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Michigan State vs. Ole Miss:

  • Michigan State vs. Ole Miss spread: Michigan State -3.5
  • Michigan State vs. Ole Miss over/under: 144.5 points  
  • Michigan State vs. Ole Miss money line: Michigan State -177, Ole Miss +148
  • MSU: The Spartans are undefeated against the spread over their last 11 games (10-0-1)
  • MISS: The Over is 10-4 over the Rebels last 14 games
  • Michigan State vs. Ole Miss picks: See who to back at SportsLine

Why Ole Miss can cover

You would be hard-pressed to find a team which surpasses Ole Miss in terms of experience and offensive balance. Its top eight players in terms of points are all upperclassmen, with seven of them being seniors. This veteran group also shares the ball freely as the team is the only in the nation with six players averaging over 10 points per game. Thus, even if one or two Rebels are having an off night, they still have several other go-to options, but Sean Pedulla is the clear No. 1 on Chris Beard's squad.

Pedulla leads Ole Miss in points (15.2), assists (3.7) and steals (1.9) as he was named to an All-SEC team a year after making an All-ACC team while with Virginia Tech. Pedulla has scored 20 points in each of the first two NCAA tourney games and has filled up the box score by averaging 6.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals during this run. He's also backed by a team that cherishes the basketball as just three teams in all of Division I average fewer turnovers than Ole Miss. See which team to pick here.

Why Michigan State can cover 

There are 364 teams in the nation, and none of them play better 3-point defense than the Michigan State Spartans. They limit opponents to just 27.8% from beyond the arc, and that perimeter defense has been even better as of late as MSU has held its last five opponents to just 22.9% on 3-point attempts. This could wreck the Rebels' offense, which often relies on the 3-pointer, as Ole Miss already struggles from converting inside the paint. The Rebels rank outside the top 200 teams in the country in 2-point percentage as it could be a struggle for them to put points on the board.

On offense, Tom Izzo's squad loves to attack the rim, draw contact and then convert from the charity stripe. Michigan State ranks first in the Big Ten in both free throw attempts and makes, while also ranking second in free throw percentage. It just so happens that Ole Miss hacks opponents nearly as much as any team as just five of the 68 March Madness teams allow more free throw attempts per game than Ole Miss. See which team to pick here.

How to make Michigan State vs. Ole Miss picks

Marshall has evaluated the Ole Miss vs. Michigan State matchup and it leaning Under on the total. He's also found a critical X-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. You can see who it is at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. Ole Miss, and what critical X-factor do you need to know about? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ole Miss vs. Michigan State spread to jump on, all from the expert who is on a 10-2 roll on Ole Miss picks, and find out.