2026 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5 picks, best bets, predictions, horses, odds from racing writer

Time is running out to qualify for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, with the last round of Derby prep races beginning next week. But even though just seven weeks remain until the first leg of the Triple Crown, no horse has emerged as a formidable favorite.

Remsen and Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin, who is trained by Chad Brown, is the lukewarm 5-1 favorite in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opens at noon ET on Friday and closes at 6 p.m. on Sunday. Fountain of Youth Stakes champ Commandment (6-1) Holy Bull Stakes hero Nearly (8-1) and Fountain of Youth runner-up Chief Wallabee (10-1) are not far behind.

But, in a race that looks wide-open, there's no reason to take a relatively short price seven weeks before the starting gate opens; you could very well get that price — or something close to it — on the first Saturday in May. There's better value in Pool 5 if you know where to look.

30 Renegade (20-1)
Conditioned by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, Renegade has given Paladin all he could handle twice, beating him by a head (before being disqualified to second) and losing to him by two lengths in the Remsen. Yet Renegade is four — four! — times the price of Paladin. In his return to the races this year, Renegade won drawing away, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes by almost four lengths. The third-place finisher from that race, The Puma, returned last weekend to win the Tampa Bay Derby. 

Renegade will need to get faster (his Beyer Speed Figure from the Davis was 93), but he certainly has every right to improve considering he has run only four times and just once this year. He figures to be a clear favorite in the Arkansas Derby, and if he wins that race he's likely to be single-digit odds in the Kentucky Derby. That makes 20-1 a fair price. 

10 Confessional (90-1)
This Brad Cox trainee was just shy of 3-1 in the Sam F. Davis before finishing seventh of nine. I have no idea what happened to him that day. Though he was racing on the inside, he was traveling nicely but didn't have the punch to find the hole when it opened. And then when he got bumped by The Puma, Confessional packed it in and faded.

Cox was high on this horse prior to the Davis, but I can't find anything from the trainer about the horse since the race. I do know that Confessional has worked three times since then, including a bullet five-furlong workout last week. That workout, his fast maiden victory and the 90-1 price are enough for me to draw a line through the Davis and dabble a little in Pool 5.

Note: Confessional is scheduled to run in the Virginia Derby on Saturday and is only worth betting in Pool 5 if he runs well.

11 Danon Bourbon (75-1)
Bred in Kentucky but based in Japan, this son of Maxfield is a perfect 2-for-2, having won his two starts by a combined 15 lengths He has finished strongly both times, suggesting that more distance shouldn't be an issue. However, I have no idea what he has been beating overseas; he may be dominating a bunch of donkeys. But he's likely to be an overwhelming favorite for the Fukuryu Stakes, and if he wins that he'll likely be less than 20-1 on Kentucky Derby Day. That's worth a little sprinkle.