2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post time: Surprising picks from elite horse racing expert

Another run at the Triple Crown of horse racing begins when a 19-horse field breaks from the gate at 6:57 p.m. ET in the 2026 Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The Kentucky Derby weather forecast is close to ideal, and a dry track should set up well for the favorites, led by the Todd Pletcher-trained Renegade, who is the 4-1 favorite in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. Brad Cox has two horses expected to make a serious run at victory, with Further Ado and Commandment right behind Renegade at 6-1 odds. Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice, but Renegade jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., a two-time Belmont Stakes winner, is looking for his first win in the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets, double what's available to the general public:

Legendary trainer Bob Baffert has two shots at winning a record-breaking seventh Kentucky Derby, and taking another step towards his third Triple Crown winner. Baffert's Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1) are Kentucky Derby longshots, but Baffert's history can't be ignored. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. The Brad Cox-trained horse won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, but his splits were concerning to experts who watched closely. "I don't like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer," Yu tells SportsLine. Commandment beat fellow Derby contender The Puma in the Florida Derby, but the added 1/16 of a mile seemed to make him labor a bit more. Now, he heads to the Derby for a race that is another eighth of a mile longer.

Add to that the fact that jockey Luis Saez has never finished in the top two in the Kentucky Derby. He does have two victories at the Belmont Stakes, but his best finish in the Run for the Roses is a third place aboard Essential Quality in 2021, when the pair went on to win the Belmont. Saez did finish first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby but was later disqualified for interference aboard Maximum Security. Cox has won the Kentucky Derby once, in that same 2021 race, when Medina Spirit was disqualified and Mandaloun was declared the winner and Essential Quality was bumped up to third. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Chief Wallabee at 8-1. The Bill Mott-trained colt hasn't won since breaking his maiden in January of this year, but he's been right there in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby, finishing a close second and third, respectively, in those races.

"The Bill Mott bandwagon has been strong with this lightly raced son of Constitution, and he has become the wiseguy horse," Yu told SportsLine. "An excellent drill over the strip has bettors foaming as he adds blinkers, and of course his connections can get it done." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She's also is high on a double-digit longshot who "drew perfectly." She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions