2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post time: Surprising picks from proven horse racing expert

The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., with a wide-open field of 19 horses chasing glory in The Run for the Roses. Arkansas Derby winner Renegade leads the way as the 4-1 morning-line favorite, and he will attempt to become the first Derby winner to break from post No. 1 since 1986. Florida Derby champion Commandment (6-1), Blue Grass Stakes sensation Further Ado (6-1) and Bill Mott's Chief Wallabee (8-1) round out the top contenders in a race that has no clear-cut standout. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets, double what's available to the general public:

Four horses scratched this week, and three alternates have entered the field. The Puma, who was 10-1 on the morning line, scratched within 12 hours of post time on Saturday, so no alternate was added in his place, leaving the Kentucky Derby field at 19 this year. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. One of the concerns is his closing speed, as Commandment's win margins have diminished as his races have gotten longer, a sign of trouble heading into the 1¼-mile Kentucky Derby. Another red flag, Saez has not finished first or second in any of his previous 12 Kentucky Derby starts. Jockey, Flavien Prat, chose to ride Emerging Market instead of Commandment.

Commandment's victory at the Florida Derby might reveal a deeper concern about his ability to get a classic distance like the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Commandment saw reduced closing speeds from the Fountain of Youth Stakes to the Florida Derby, and with the Kentucky Derby being even longer, there is a real worry he fades in the stretch of The Run for the Roses. Yu was not swayed by his four-race winning streak under trainer Brad Cox, and with the longer Churchill Downs lane presenting a big test, Commandment's late-race struggles could be exposed. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Chief Wallabee at 8-1. The Bill Mott-trained colt hasn't won since breaking his maiden in January of this year, but he's been right there in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby, finishing a close second and third, respectively, in those races.

"The Bill Mott bandwagon has been strong with this lightly raced son of Constitution, and he has become the wiseguy horse," Yu told SportsLine. "An excellent drill over the strip has bettors foaming as he adds blinkers, and of course his connections can get it done." See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She's also is high on a double-digit longshot who "drew perfectly." She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions