2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, top contenders: Picks by expert who has cashed 22 Triple Crown races

History will be made at the 2026 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2, when the first leg of this year's Triple Crown will be decided. The Run for the Roses is always a big day in the horse racing and sports betting worlds, and this year's race should be no different. Renegade is the Kentucky Derby favorite at 4-1 as trainer Todd Pletcher vies for his third Derby win. A Renegade victory would be a big deal for a number of reasons, one being that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post position since 1986. Additionally, Renegade's owner, Mike Repole, has been rather snakebitten at the Kentucky Derby, failing to win in his previous 11 appearances, three of which ended early due to scratches. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what's available to the general public:

Whether you're leaning towards the favorite Renegade, another top contender like Further Ado or Commandment or a longshot like Albus, time is running short to get Kentucky Derby picks in since post time is at 6:57 p.m. ET. Before locking in any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, you need to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing guru Jeff Hochman.

Hochman has shown a profit in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races. One example of his best picks was Big Brown in the 2008 Kentucky Derby at odds of 2-1. More recently, he swept the 2022 Triple Crown, capped off by Mo Donegal's easy win in the Belmont Stakes. In 2023, he cashed the Preakness with National Treasure. In 2024, he successfully tabbed Straight No Chaser to win, place and show in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship at odds of 3-2.

Hochman delivered exceptional handicapping results during the summer 2025 racing season at two of the country's premier tracks, Saratoga and Del Mar. His combined 65.7% win rate across the two tracks represents elite-level performance that significantly exceeds industry benchmarks for professional handicappers.

Now, Hochman has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Hochman's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment, one of the favorites. Commandment is one of two horses trainer Brad Cox is bringing to Churchill Downs this weekend along with Further Ado, and both are top contenders at 6-1. 

Commandment is coming off a big win at the Florida Derby, but Hochman isn't that impressed with the horse's performance. "Commandment's 1:49.99 race time is slow compared to recent winners," he says. "His peak came in the Fountain of Youth, posting a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, but he dropped to 96 in the Florida Derby." Both finishes were very close, which Hochman says shows Commandment has trouble separating from rivals at critical times.

To add another wrinkle here with Commandment, two great jockeys -- Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat -- have decided on other mounts for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Prat opting to mount Emerging Market (15-1) rather than Commandment really stands out to Hochman, who believes jockeys are questioning Commandment's upside. See who to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Moreover, Hochman's top pick is a horse with "remarkable finishing speed." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "peaking at the perfect moment." Hochman is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Hochman's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has a 65.7% win rate and has cashed in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds