2026 March Madness championship game odds, picks: Michigan vs. UConn predictions from expert on 38-25 run

The second-seeded Connecticut Huskies look to win their seventh national championship title, all since 1999, when they battle the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines in the 2026 March Madness final on Monday night. UConn is coming off a 71-62 win over Illinois, while Michigan downed Arizona 91-73 in Saturday's semifinals. The Huskies (34-5), who finished second in the Big East at 17-3, are looking to win their third national title over the past four years. The Wolverines (36-3), who won the Big Ten regular season title at 19-1, are seeking to win their first national championship since 1989.

Tipoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 8:49 p.m. ET. The Wolverines are 6.5-point favorites in the latest UConn vs. Michigan odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 146.5, up two points from the opening line. Before making any Michigan vs. UConn picks, check out what SportsLine college basketball expert Thomas Casale has to say.

A frequent guest on national radio and TV shows to discuss college sports, Casale has been betting - and winning - for more than 30 years. He sets his own lines for each game, then looks at the metrics to see where he can find an edge in the number. He joined SportsLine in early 2024 and started off on a 89-53 on his college basketball picks. He enters this matchup on a 38-25 roll on college basketball spread picks. 

Now, Casale has his sights set on UConn vs. Michigan, and just revealed his March Madness final picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Casale's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball lines for Michigan vs. Connecticut:

Top UConn vs. Michigan predictions

Casale is going Over on the point total (146.5). Michigan has the eighth-most explosive offense in Division I, averaging 87.8 points per game. The Wolverines also have the nation's second-best point differential at plus-18.1. The Over has hit in 11 of Connecticut's last 18 games against teams averaging more than 72 points per game.

Five players average at least 11.6 points for UConn, with Tarris Reed Jr. leading the way with 14.8 points. Michigan, meanwhile, is led by Yaxel Lendeborg at 16.2 points per game as four Wolverines average at least 10.9 points. Casale likes the Over in this spot. You can see his spread picks at SportsLine.

How to make Michigan vs. UConn picks

Casale has also found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins UConn vs. Michigan in the 2026 NCAA Tournament championship, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert on a 38-25 roll on his college basketball spread picks, and find out.