Alabama vs. Hofstra odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

Coach Nate Oats and No. 4 seed Alabama (23-9, 13-5 SEC) will look for another deep March Madness run when they open their 2026 NCAA Tournament on Friday against No. 13 Hofstra (24-10, 12-6 CAA). Alabama has made it to the NCAA Tournament in five straight seasons and reached at least the Sweet 16 in four of those appearances. The Tide's first opponent, Hofstra, won the CAA Tournament and has lost just one game since January 29. Alabama is preparing to play without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, according to coach Nate Oats, after Holloway was arrested earlier this week. 

Tipoff from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla., is at 3:15 p.m. ET. The Tide are 11.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Hofstra odds, while the over/under is 158.5. Before making any Hofstra vs. Alabama picks, check out the Alabama vs. Hofstra picks from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Alabama vs. Hofstra 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Hofstra vs. Alabama:

Top Alabama vs. Hofstra predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Hofstra vs. Alabama, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (158.5 points). Alabama ranks first nationally in scoring offense with 91.7 points per game, and the Tide have plenty of offensive options even without Holloway. Labaron Philon Jr. averages 21.7 points per game, while Latrell Wrightsell averages 12.8. 

Hofstra, meanwhile, is more defensively-oriented, but the Pride have high-level scorers in the backcourt, Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead. Davis leads the team with 20.2 points per game, while Edmead averages 15.9. Both shoot nearly 40% from 3-point territory, so the Pride are equipped to score in bunches if they need to match a high-powered Alabama squad. The model is projecting 160 points, making the Over the value side. See the full Hofstra vs. Alabama picks at SportsLine.

How to make Hofstra vs. Alabama picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Alabama vs. Hofstra 10,000 times and says one side of the spread cashes nearly 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Alabama vs. Hofstra, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Hofstra vs. Alabama spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.