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The No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 7 seed Saint Mary's Gaels square off in a second-round showdown on Sunday in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Crimson Tide knocked off Robert Morris 90-81 in the first round. Meanwhile, Saint Mary's snuck past Vanderbilt 59-56. The winner of this matchup will take on BYU in the Sweet 16. 

Tipoff from the Rocket Arena is at 6:10 p.m. ET. The latest Saint Mary's vs. Alabama odds via SportsLine consensus list the Crimson Tide as 5.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 149.5. The Crimson Tide are now -244 money-line favorites after opening at -230. Before making any Alabama vs. Saint Mary's picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Saint Mary's vs. Alabama and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Saint Mary's vs. Alabama: 

  • Saint Mary's vs. Alabama spread: Crimson Tide -5.5
  • Saint Mary's vs. Alabama over/under: 149.5 points
  • Saint Mary's vs. Alabama money line: Crimson Tide -244, Gaels +201
  • Saint Mary's vs. Alabama picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Alabama can cover

Guard Mark Sears is a crafty scorer for the Crimson Tide. He plays with poise and gets to his spots consistently. Sears leads the squad in points (18.8) and assists (5.1) while shooting 33% from 3-point land. In the win over Robert Morris, he totaled 22 points, five rebounds, and 10 assists. This was his third double-double this season. 

Sophomore guard Aden Holloway can create his own shot with a nice touch out on the perimeter. The North Carolina native is averaging 11.2 points and makes 41% from 3-point land. Holloway has totaled double-digit points in seven of his past 11 outings. On March 14 versus Kentucky, he totaled 13 points, two rebounds, and four boards. See which side to pick at SportsLine.

Why Saint Mary's can cover

Senior guard Augustas Marciulionis has been a consistent facilitator who owns great court vision. Marciulionis averages 14.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. He's scored at least 10 points and dished out five-plus assists in eight of his last 11 games. In the March 11 game against Gonzaga, Marciulionis totaled 12 points, five rebounds, and eight assists.

Senior forward Mitchell Saxen is a two-way force in the frontcourt. Saxen puts up 10.7 points and 8.0 rebounds, while knocking down 54% of his shot attempts. The Washington native has logged 10 doubles-doubles this season. In the win over Vanderbilt, Saxen had 12 points and 11 rebounds. See which side to pick at SportsLine.

How to make Alabama vs. Saint Mary's picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, predicting that the teams will combine for 153 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See which side to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Saint Mary's vs. Alabama, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,000 on top-rated spread picks since 2023, and find out.