Arizona vs. LIU odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks by proven model

The 16th-seeded Long Island Sharks will battle the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Friday. LIU won the NEC Tournament championship with a 79-70 win over Mercyhurst, while Arizona claimed the Big 12 title with a 79-74 win over Houston. The Sharks (24-10), who have won five in a row, won the Northeast Conference regular season crown with a 15-3 mark in league play. The Wildcats (32-2) finished on top of the Big 12 regular-season standings with a 16-2 conference record.

Tipoff from Viejas Arena in San Diego is set for 1:35 p.m. ET. Arizona is a 30.5-point favorite in the latest LIU vs. Arizona odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 147.5. Before making any Arizona vs. LIU picks, check out the Long Island vs. Arizona predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated LIU vs. Arizona 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball lines for Arizona vs. LIU:

Top LIU vs. Arizona predictions

After 10,000 simulations of LIU vs. Arizona, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (147.5 points). The Over has hit in five of the last eight LIU games, and in three of the last four Arizona games. LIU is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games. Arizona, meanwhile, is 5-5 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Sharks to have three players score over 13 points, including Greg Gordon, who is projected to score 14. The Wildcats are projected to have seven players score over 10 points, led by Brayden Burries' 16. The model is projecting 151 combined points, as the Over clears in 56% of simulations. See the full Long Island vs. Arizona picks at SportsLine.

How to make Arizona vs. LIU picks

Now, the model just simulated every possession of LIU vs. Arizona 10,000 times and says one side of the spread cashes well over 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Arizona vs. LIU, and which side of the spread cashes in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Arizona vs. Long Island spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.