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The ninth-seeded Baylor Bears take on Cooper Flagg and the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in an East Region second-round matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Sunday. Baylor opened up tournament play with a 75-72 win over Mississippi State, while Duke rolled over Mount St. Mary's 93-49. The Bears (20-14), who have compiled a 24-17 tournament record in 17 appearances, have lost in the second round of each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, after winning the national championship in 2021. The Blue Devils (32-3), who are 123-41 in 47 tournament appearances, have made the Elite Eight 24 times, including twice in the past three seasons.

Tipoff from Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., is set for 2:40 p.m. ET. Duke holds a 2-0 series edge all-time, including a 78-70 win in their last meeting in 2023. Duke is a 12.5-point favorite in the latest Duke vs. Baylor odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 145.5, up two from the opener. Duke's over/under for total team points is 79.5, while Baylor's is 66.5. Before making any Baylor vs. Duke picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Duke and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Duke vs. Baylor:

  • Duke vs. Baylor spread: Duke -12.5
  • Duke vs. Baylor over/under: 145.5 points  
  • Duke vs. Baylor money line: Duke -962, Baylor +625
  • BAY: The Bears are 3-5-2 against the spread in their last 10 games  
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils have covered the money line in 35 of their last 39 games (+25.70 units)  
  • Duke vs. Baylor picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Duke can cover

Flagg returned from an ankle injury to post a 14-point, seven-rebound, four-assist and two-block performance against Mount St. Mary's in Friday's first round matchup. He had been out since being injured against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals eight days earlier. In 33 games this season, all starts, the likely No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft is averaging 18.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks in 30.2 minutes. He is connecting on 48.8% of his field goals, including 36.7% of his 3-pointers, and 83.1% of his free throws.

Also helping power the Blue Devils is freshman guard Kon Knueppel. In 35 starts, he is averaging 14.1 points, four rebounds, 2.7 assists and one steal in 30.1 minutes. In the ACC Tournament championship, he nearly registered a double-double with 18 points, eight rebounds, three assists and two steals. He had 28 points, eight assists, five rebounds and two steals in a 78-70 win over Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. See which team to pick here.

Why Baylor can cover 

Senior forward Norchad Omier has been a dominant force this season. In 34 games, all starts, he has registered 23 double-doubles, including a 29-point, 15-rebound and two-block effort in a 76-74 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Conference Tournament quarterfinals. He had 12 points and 10 rebounds with three assists in Friday's NCAA Tournament first-round win. In 31.7 minutes per game this season, he is averaging 15.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals and one block.

Freshman guard V.J. Edgecombe is another offensive weapon for the Bears. In 32 games, all starts, he is averaging 15 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.1 steals in 32.7 minutes. In Friday's win over Mississippi State, he scored 14 points, while adding five rebounds and two assists. He registered a double-double with 19 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and three steals in a 70-56 win over Kansas State in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. See which team to pick here.

How to make Baylor vs. Duke picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 148 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Baylor vs. Duke, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Duke vs. Baylor spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.