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The 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers will look to challenge the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in an East Regional first-round matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Friday afternoon. Mount St. Mary's defeated American 83-72 in its First Four matchup on Wednesday, while the Blue Devils are coming off a 73-62 win over Louisville in the ACC championship game. The Mountaineers (23-12), who were 12-8 in the MAAC, are making their seventh NCAA Tournament appearance. The Blue Devils (31-3), who won the ACC regular-season title at 19-1, are making their 47th NCAA Tournament appearance.

Tipoff from Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., is set for 2:50 p.m. ET. This will be the first meeting between the schools. Duke is a 32.5-point favorite in the latest Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 140.5. Before making any Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's:

  • Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke spread: Duke -32.5
  • Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke over/under: 140.5 points
  • MSM: The Mountaineers have hit the money line in 22 of their last 33 games (+28.60 units)                              
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils have covered the spread in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.70 units)  
  • Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Duke can cover

The Blue Devils are led by freshman forward Cooper Flagg, who is expected to play despite sustaining an ankle injury in the ACC Tournament. He is the 2024-25 ACC Player of the Year, and was named ACC Rookie of the Year. He is the only freshman with at least 600 points and 125 assists. In 32 games, all starts, he is averaging 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks in 30.4 minutes. 

Also powering Duke is freshman guard Kon Knueppel. He is coming off an 18-point, eight-rebound, three-assist and two-steal performance against Louisville in the ACC title game. He had 28 points, eight assists, five rebounds and two steals in a 78-70 win over Georgia Tech in the ACC quarterfinals. In 34 games, all starts, he is averaging 14.4 points, four rebounds, 2.7 assists and one steal in 30.4 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why Mount St. Mary's can cover 

Junior forward Dola Adebayo poured in 22 points and grabbed four rebounds to power the Mountaineers past American in Wednesday's First Four matchup. He posted a double-double with 19 points and 11 rebounds in a 62-58 win over Marist in the MAAC quarterfinals. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 13.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and one assist in 29 minutes. He is connecting on 52.3% of his field goals and 73.8% of his free throws.

Sophomore guard Dallas Hobbs scored 17 points, grabbed three rebounds, made three steals and dished out two assists in Wednesday's win over American. He had 18 points and added seven assists and three rebounds in a 63-49 win over Iona in the MAAC Championship. He has reached double-figure scoring in 20 games. In 29 games, including 25 starts, he is averaging 12.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 27.9 minutes. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 145 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. Mount St. Mary's, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.