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The Xavier Musketeers survived a First Four matchup against Texas on Wednesday and now they'll advance to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on Friday in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Illinois is the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region after a 21-12 season while Xavier is a No. 11 seed and is 22-11 overall. These programs last played each other in a non-conference matchup in 2018 and both teams have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

Tipoff from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisc., is set for 9:45 p.m. ET. The Fighting Illini are 4-point favorites in the latest Illinois vs. Xavier odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 161.5. Before making any Xavier vs. Illinois picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Illinois vs. Xavier and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Xavier vs. Illinois:

  • Illinois vs. Xavier spread: Illinois -4
  • Illinois vs. Xavier over/under: 161.5 points 
  • Illinois vs. Xavier money line: Illinois -185, Xavier +154
  • ILL: 17-15 against the spread (ATS) this season 
  • XAV: 19-14 ATS this season 
  • Illinois vs. Xavier picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Illinois can cover

Illinois has made the NCAA Tournament four seasons in a row with Brad Underwood at the helm and the Illini are coming off an Elite Eight run a season ago. However, less than 10% of the scoring from that team returned and Illinois has leaned heavily on freshmen Kasparas Jakucionas, Will Riley and Tomislav Ivisic.

Jakucionas averaged 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game and earned All-Big Ten honors while Riley averaged 12.5 points and 4.1 rebounds and Ivisic averaged 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds. All three of those freshmen are internationals and the Illini rank 11th in the nation in scoring (83.8 ppg) and second in rebounding (42.5 rpg). See which team to pick here.

Why Xavier can cover 

Meanwhile, the Musketeers are coming off an 86-80 win over the Longhorns and it was an impressive offensive performance from Sean Miller's squad. Xavier shot 55.2% from the floor and went 12-of-25 from the 3-point line, with five players reaching double-figures in scoring.

Marcus Foster led the team with 22 points while leading scorers Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell had 15 points and 11 points, respectively. The Musketeers are 15-4-1 against the spread in their last 20 games against Big Ten opponents. See which team to pick here.

How to make Illinois vs. Xavier picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 155 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Xavier vs. Illinois, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.