Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, post positions, date: Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado expert projections revealed

It's been nearly a decade since a Todd A. Pletcher-trained horse has won the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher is one of the most decorated trainers in North America, having registered over 5,700 career wins. He gets a chance to return to the winner's circle at the 2026 Kentucky Derby on May 2 when Renegade strolls to the starting gate as the 9-2 favorite.

Pletcher's last win at Churchill Downs in Louisville came in 2017 when Always Dreaming tamed the wet but fast track by 2 ¾ lengths over Lookin At Lee. Other favorites at the 2026 Kentucky Derby include Further Ado (5-1), Commandment (6-1), The Puma (10-1) and Chief Wallabee (10-1). Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.

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A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and called the exacta in last year's Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up. 

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis

One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (6-1), even though the Florida Derby winner is one of the favorites. Although Commandment has been on a roll, winning his last four races, he was trained by Brad H. Cox, who has just one Kentucky Derby win in his career. That came in 2021, when Mandaloun was declared the winner. Mandaloun actually crossed the finish line second, but was elevated to champion after Medina Spirit tested positive for a banned substance.

Cox, 46, also has just one other U.S. Triple Crown race win. That also came in 2021, when Essential Quality won the Belmont Stakes. Cox has registered over 2,500 wins in his career. Despite that, Demling sees value elsewhere. See who to back at SportsLine.

Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Renegade, who at 9-2 is trying to become the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. It's been a mixed bag for Kentucky Derby favorites recently as this seven-year drought without a victory immediately followed a six-year run (2013-18) in which the favored horse won every year. Renegade has won both of his starts as a 3-year-old, including the G1 Arkansas Derby in late March. This comes after going winless as a juvenile across three races.

Renegade was sired by Into Mischief, who won his lone start on dirt at the 2007 CashCall Futurity but never attempted a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. Saddled by Todd Pletcher, Renegade has the most experienced trainer in Kentucky Derby history. Pletcher's had 65 starters at the Run for the Roses, which is 14 more than any other trainer. Two of those horses have prevailed at Churchill Downs for Pletcher, but none of his last 13 Derby starters have finished in the money. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS to claim up to $400 in bonus bets:

Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (5-1), who won at Churchill Downs late in his 2-year-old season. Following his fifth-place finish in his initial dirt-fast MSW race, he has not finished lower than third, that coming in August. Since October, Further Ado has registered three wins and one second-place finish. He is coming off a first-place finish at the 2026 Blue Grass at Keeneland earlier this month.

He had placed second behind The Puma, who enters the Derby at 10-1, at the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby. Further Ado is trained by Brad H. Cox, who has one Kentucky Derby winner in his career. That came in 2021 when Mandaloun was elevated to the victory after Medina Spirit was disqualified for testing positive for a banned substance. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is also high on a longshot who "demolished the field" in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds