March Madness 2026 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by top college basketball model

Nothing is guaranteed to occur in the 2026 March Madness bracket, but an 11-seed upsetting a 6-seed is as close to a certainty as there is. Every NCAA Tournament since 2005 has seen at least one 11-seed knock off a sixth-seeded team in the first round. The teams seeded No. 11 in the NCAA Tournament 2026 are a mix of mid-majors and power conference teams, including South Florida, who will face No. 6 Louisville on Thursday in the March Madness bracket 2026.

USF has balance, with all five starters averaging over 11 points per game. Meanwhile, Louisville is a question mark in March Madness 2026 after star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. missed the ACC Tournament. The Cardinals are a different team without him, and if he can't go, Louisville could be on upset alert in this pivotal 6 vs. 11 matchup. Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

There's no reason to rely on luck when there's proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)

One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis defeats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. The Bulldogs have lost five straight NCAA tourney games, which is the third-longest active drought by any power conference team. The weakness of their defense could make it six straight defeats as the Dawgs are allowing 79.2 ppg this year, their most allowed in a season in over 50 years. It just so happens that Georgia's first-round opponent boasts one of the best offenses in the land.

The Billikens rank in the top 10, nationally, in points per game, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. They also bring it on the other end of the court, as per KenPom, Saint Louis is one of four teams to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive effective FG%. Add in that Saint Louis has the fourth-best ppg differential (+17.7) in Division I, and the Billikens could be poised for a deep tourney run.

Another surprise in the Midwest: No. 5 Texas Tech defeats No. 4 Alabama in the second round. The Red Raiders combine both a high volume with a high efficiency when it comes to the 3-point shot, ranking fifth in the country in both makes and percentage. They also have a star in Christian Anderson, who is the team's go-to guy in the wake of JT Toppin's season-ending injury. Anderson is one of two players in all of college basketball averaging at least 18 points and 7 assists, with his 7.6 assists ranking third in the nation.

Meanwhile, Bama is coming off a first-round loss in the SEC Tournament, despite being a 2-seed and facing 15-seed Ole Miss. No team has ever won the national title in the same season in which it lost its conference tournament opener, but Bama may not even win more than one game in March Madness. The Tide's 83.5 ppg allowed are the most by the school in 56 years, and they've given up 87 ppg to their last four non-SEC opponents. Defense wins championships, and a lack of defense has the model predicting Alabama doesn't even win its second-round matchup. You can see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which region does the model project the No. 1 seed not making the Final Four, plus there being two double-digit seed stunners? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament double-digit seeds will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region is loaded with upsets, all from the model that's beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last seven tournaments.