March Madness 2026 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by unbiased college basketball model
SportsLine's model has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds and revealed its optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026
No. 4 seed Arkansas enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket as one of the hottest teams in college basketball after winning the SEC Tournament. The Razorbacks are led by SEC Tournament MVP Darius Acuff Jr., who helped his team average the third-most points per game in the country this season. They join No. 1 seed Arizona, No. 2 seed Purdue and No. 3 seed Gonzaga in the West Region. Which team should you have advancing to the Final Four with your 2026 March Madness picks?
The other No. 1 seeds in the March Madness bracket 2026 are Duke, Michigan and Florida, with the Gators trying to defend their title. Those top seeds will be the most popular 2026 NCAA Tournament picks, especially after the top four seeds all made the Final Four last year. Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
There's no reason to rely on luck when there's proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)
One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis defeats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. Josh Schertz was hired at Saint Louis two seasons ago after leading Indiana State to 32 wins and he's helped quickly transform the Billikens back into a noteworthy mid-major. Saint Louis won the regular-season A-10 title and was ranked top-15 in the nation in both offensive and defensive rating this season.
Meanwhile, Georgia was prolific offensively (fifth in the nation in scoring), but ranked 315th out of 365 Division I teams in points allowed per game (79.2). Saint Louis is elite at the 3-point line on both ends of the floor, ranking third in 3-point shooting percentage (40.1%) and fifth in 3-point shooting percentage allowed (29.4%). Those are big reasons why the model likes Saint Louis to pull off the upset in this 8 vs. 9 matchup.
Another surprise in the Midwest: the First Four winner of Miami (Ohio) vs. SMU knocks off 6-seed Tennessee in the first round. Tennessee is coming off back-to-back Elite Eight appearances for the first time in school history, but it has its worst NCAA Tournament seed since 2014. The Vols have played 59 games in the Big Dance but have never reached the Final Four.
They have lost four of their last six games and are just 4-11 when allowing at least 70 points in a game this season. This will be a tricky first-round matchup regardless of their opponent, as Miami (OH) averages the second-most points per game (90.7) in college basketball, while SMU is also in the top 25 at 84.2 points per game. One of those teams will generate some momentum in the First Four, so Tennessee will be facing a confident squad. You can see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which region does the model project the No. 1 seed not making the Final Four, plus there being two double-digit seed stunners? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament double-digit seeds will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region is loaded with upsets, all from the model that's beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last seven tournaments.
