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While correctly picking 2026 March Madness upsets at the beginning of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is exciting, the weighted format of March Madness bracket scoring makes nailing the later rounds far more important. High accuracy in the Elite Eight and Final Four will almost assuredly put 2026 March Madness bracket picks in a good position. Over the past 23 editions of the Big Dance, 22 champions entered the tournament ranked inside the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. Eight teams fit that metric this year, including all of the No. 1 seeds.

Duke, Arizona, Florida and Michigan are all on the top line of their respective regions, with the Blue Devils earning the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA bracket 2026. Should you have the Blue Devils cutting down the nets with your 2026 March Madness picks? Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

There's no reason to rely on luck when there's proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)

One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis defeats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. Georgia enters the Big Dance having lost its last five NCAA Tournament games dating back to 2002, giving the Bulldogs the third-longest active drought by a power conference team. They are coming off a blowout loss to Gonzaga in the first round of last year's tournament.

Saint Louis is one of four Division 1 teams since 2000 to rank inside the top five in both offensive and defensive eFG%, according to KenPom. The Billikens rank tenth nationally in points per game and fourth in points per game differential. All seven of their leading scorers average between nine and 13 points per game, so they have the balance and efficiency to get past Georgia.

Another surprise in the Midwest: No. 5 Texas Tech defeats No. 4 Alabama in the second round. Nate Oats has transformed Alabama into one of the best programs in the country, taking Alabama to its first Final Four two seasons ago and backing it up with an Elite Eight trip last year. However, Oats would be one of the first to admit that his defense hasn't been good enough this year.

Alabama ranks 356th out of 365 DI teams in points allowed per game (83.5) and even with the offense playing at a breakneck pace, it will be tough to outscore teams long enough to put together another deep run. Texas Tech is an extremely capable offensive team (12th in adjusted offensive efficiency) that can also string together stops when needed (33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency). Without significant defensive improvements, that simply looks like a bad matchup for the Crimson Tide. You can see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which region does the model project the No. 1 seed not making the Final Four, plus there being two double-digit seed stunners? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament double-digit seeds will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region is loaded with upsets, all from the model that's beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last seven tournaments.