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A No. 10 seed beating a No. 7 seed in the men's tournament is quite common given the teams are pretty close in talent. No. 10 seeds hold an all-time record of 60-95 versus No. 7 seeds.

It's almost a certainty that at least one No. 10 seed will record a win this year. There have been only three men's tournaments (1993, 2007 and '20) in which the No. 7 seeds won all four matchups. No. 7 seeds have been swept just once (1999).

Last year, Colorado defeated No. 7 seed Florida in a 102-100 thriller. How many No. 7 seeds are in danger this year?

We break down the four matchups to determine which No. 10 seed has the best chance to pull an upset.

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10 vs. 7 upset rankings

These are ordered from least likely to most likely.

4. Utah State over UCLA

UCLA isn't having one of its best seasons under coach Mick Cronin, although I think the Bruins got a great first-round draw. Utah State is my lowest rated at-large team, and I don't see the Aggies having a long stay in the tournament. 

The issue Utah State will have in this matchup is its porous two-point defense, which ranks 257th in the country. UCLA doesn't always hit shots consistently from the perimeter, but that shouldn't matter in this game. 

I like the Bruins to comfortably advance to the second round.

3. Vanderbilt over Saint Mary's

Outside of UCLA, I believe all the No. 7 seeds are on upset alert. Of the next three, I'd say the least likely to happen is Vanderbilt over Saint Mary's because the Gaels have a huge edge defensively.

Vanderbilt's defense ranks last in the SEC in efficiency, effective field-goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage. Now, Saint Mary's isn't Alabama or Florida, although the Gaels are efficient from beyond the arc and an excellent offensive rebounding team.

This game will be a contrast in styles. Vanderbilt wants to play fast, and Saint Mary's wants to slow the pace. I think the difference will be the Gaels' transition defense that was pivotal in two wins over Gonzaga. This will be a competitive game, but I like Saint Mary's to advance.

2. New Mexico over Marquette

Last year, New Mexico beating Clemson in the first round was one of the more popular picks in bracket pools. It didn't work out as the Lobos lost 77-56.

New Mexico has a much better chance to notch a tournament win this season. I haven't been high on Marquette or the Big East in general. The Golden Eagles lack scoring options outside of Kam Jones and David Joplin, and they feel like a team that won't have a long stay in the tournament.

Another reason I like New Mexico is Marquette depends a lot on generating turnovers and converting them into points. The Lobos have talented guards led by Donovan Dent, and they don't turn the ball over much. That should limit Marquette's scoring opportunities.

I like New Mexico a little bit in this tournament. I took the Lobos to beat Marquette in my bracket and wouldn't be surprised if they won a couple of games.

1. Arkansas over Kansas

This was an easy call because even though Kansas is favored over Arkansas, the matchup is pretty even on paper. I don't think anyone will be shocked if the Razorbacks win. 

Kansas was the preseason No. 1 team but didn't live up to its lofty expectations, falling to a No. 7 seed. Arkansas battled all kinds of injuries and managed to get into the field with a late-season run in which the Hogs went 5-2 in the rugged SEC. 

Arkansas is also getting some good news on the injury front. Leading scorer Boogie Fland is expected to return after being sidelined since January with a thumb injury. That is a big boost to Arkansas' chances. 

I took Kansas in my bracket, although this is a coin-flip game between two teams that could be sleepers in the region.