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Picking a No. 11 seed over a No. 6 seed isn't talked about as much as the more famous No. 12 vs. No. 5 upset in the men's basketball tournament. However, it's more likely to happen. While No. 12 seeds have won a game 55 times, No. 11 seeds have pulled off the upset 61 times. 

A No. 11 seed has won a game in the tournament nine times since 2020. Last year was a banner year for the 11-6 upset with three No. 6 seeds going down in the first round. Duquesne defeated BYU, Oregon disposed of South Carolina and North Carolina State upset Texas Tech. The Wolfpack ended up making the Final Four as a No. 11 seed. 

The No. 6 seeds need to be on upset alert again this year. I took two to win outright in my bracket, and I wouldn't be surprised if any of the No. 11 seeds win at least one game in the tournament. Below, we break down the matchups to determine which No. 11 seed has the best chance to pull an upset. 

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11 vs. 6 upset rankings

These are ordered from least likely to most likely.

4. SDSU/North Carolina over Ole Miss

This is the one 11-6 matchup I don't love for the lower seed. I understand that people are upset that UNC got in, but San Diego State is one of my lowest-rated teams in the field. 

I don't like either team versus Ole Miss. The Rebels are one of those second-tier SEC squads I believe can win a couple of games in the NCAA Tournament. I wouldn't be shocked if North Carolina beat Ole Miss, although it's my lowest-rated 11-6 upset.

3. Drake over Missouri 

I really wanted to take Missouri to make it past the first weekend in my bracket. However, the Tigers got a tough first-round draw. The Tigers want to play super fast, while Drake would play the old North Carolina four corners to milk eight minutes off the clock if it were still allowed. 

The key to this game is the first 10 minutes. For Drake to have success with its slow pace, the Bulldogs can't fall behind early. On the other hand, if Drake gets a lead, it can start bleeding the clock and frustrate Missouri by limiting possessions. 

I took Missouri to win in my bracket, but this was one of the most fascinating matchups in the first round. The Bulldogs have made the men's tournament in three straight years. The third time could be a charm for Drake. 

2. VCU over BYU 

I took VCU to upset BYU in my bracket. I believe the Rams are one of the most undervalued teams in the field, and this is a great matchup for them. 

Two things VCU does well are create turnovers and shoot the three. BYU ranks 207th in turnover percentage and 243rd in defending the 3-pointer. The Cougars also shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but VCU has one of the best perimeter defenses in college basketball. 

The tournament is all about matchups. BYU is a good team, however, VCU has one of the best first-round matchups of any lower seed. I like the Rams to pull the upset. 

1. Xavier/Texas over Illinois 

There are enigmas, then there is Illinois. At times, the Illini look like a sleeper team to win a region. Other times, they look like a team that should not have made the tournament. 

We never know which Illinois will show up, but I think the Illini got a bad draw facing the winner of Texas vs. Xavier. Those were the two bubble teams I thought could win a game or two in the tournament. 

The problem for the Illini is they love shooting threes, but they just aren't very good at it. Illinois ranks 316th in 3-point percentage. If the threes aren't dropping in the first round, it won't matter who the Illini face, they are going home early. I like the matchup for either Xavier or Texas and think either beats erratic Illinois.