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One of the classic men's tournament upset picks is taking a No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5. No. 12 seeds tend to be the top-end mid-major squads with enough talent to pull an upset.

The numbers back up taking at least one No. 12 seed to win a tournament game. It's happened 55 times over the years with No. 12 seeds sporting an impressive 35.3% winning percentage.

No. 12 seeds have won a tournament game eight times since 2019. Last season, two No. 12 seeds pulled an upset with James Madison defeating Wisconsin and Grand Canyon taking out Saint Mary's.

A No. 12 seed has won a game in 33 of the last 39 men's tournaments. Will it happen again this year? It's likely.

Let's dive into each 5-12 game and isolate the best chance for a takedown.

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12 vs. 5 upset rankings

These are ordered from least likely to most likely.

4. McNeese over Clemson

McNeese was a popular upset pick last season as a No. 12 seed over Gonzaga. That didn't work out as the Bulldogs cruised to an 86-65 victory. I like the Cowboys' matchup this year against Clemson better in a game that could turn into a slog.

Both of these teams like to play slow, unlike last year when Gonzaga ran McNeese off the court. The Cowboys are also a very good offensive rebounding team, and second-chance points could be a factor if this is a low-scoring game with limited possessions.

I ranked McNeese at No. 4, but I believe that all of the No. 5 seeds could go down this year.

3. Liberty over Oregon

Liberty is a dangerous first-round opponent. The Flames can shoot the lights out, ranking fifth in 3-point field goal percentage and 13th in two-point field goal percentage. Any team shooting that well has a chance to pull an upset.

I did take the Ducks to advance in my bracket, but it was a tough call. I like how Oregon is one of the most experienced teams in the field, and Dana Altman gets the most out of his players in March.

The Ducks' size and athleticism should be the difference but if Liberty is hitting its triples, Oregon could be going home early. 

2. UC San Diego over Michigan

Every year, there is one game that is the sexy upset pick in both brackets and the betting world. This year it is UC San Diego taking out Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan.

The Tritons have become a cult favorite among college basketball fans. They have won a nation's-best 15 straight games and play an aggressive style that could give Michigan problems.

The Wolverines' biggest weakness all season has been turnovers. Michigan doesn't have a true ball handler and ranks 328th in turnover percentage. That is music to the Tritons' ears. UC San Diego's defense ranks second in the nation in turnover percentage and converts those mistakes into points, ranking 19th in potential quick points off breakaway steals, according to Haslametrics.

Michigan has a big size advantage and will need to slow the game down and get the ball inside to seven-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. But UC San Diego couldn't have asked for a better matchup. This could very well be one of the times the sexy upset pick wins.

1. Colorado State over Memphis

I mentioned that all of the five seeds are on upset alert. However, Memphis is the only one that is actually an underdog in the betting odds.

Colorado State comes in red-hot, winning 10 straight games. The Rams mowed through the Mountain West conference tournament to earn the automatic bid. They also catch a break because Memphis very well could be without guard Tyrese Hunter, who averages 13.7 points per game.

If the Tigers are going to avoid a 12-5 upset, they need to create turnovers. That's an area where Colorado State has struggled at times this season, and Memphis is one of the better teams in the country at turning opponents over and getting out in transition.

I took Colorado State to advance in my brackets. I believe the Rams are the better team right now, and the oddsmakers agree.