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If you are looking to pick an upset in the college basketball tournament, selecting a No. 16 seed over a top seed probably isn't the best strategy. 

A 16 seed had never defeated a No. 1 seed until 2018, when UMBC made history and shocked Virginia 74-54. Five years later, it happened again as FDU took down Zach Edey and Purdue 63-58.

The bad news for 16 seeds is they are just 2-154 all-time against No. 1 seeds. The good news is, the unexpected has happened twice in the last six years. Are any top seeds in danger this year? Probably not. 

Auburn faltered down the stretch, losing three of its last four games. Duke might be playing without freshman sensation Cooper Flagg for the first game. While it's a tall order for any 16 seed to pull off an upset this year, let's break down the matchups to see which team has the best chance to shock the world. 

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16 vs. 1 upset rankings

These are ordered from least likely to most likely.

4. Alabama State/St. Francis over Auburn

Auburn dropped three of its last four games. That actually could be bad news for the Tigers' opponent in the first game. Instead of coming in unfocused on an overmatched opponent, Auburn is likely to be plenty angry with how the season ended. 

The other reason this game ranks fourth is because both Alabama State and St. Francis were surprise winners of their conference tournaments. Central Connecticut dominated the Northeast Conference all season but fell to St. Francis in the tournament final. Alabama State was a No. 5 seed in the SWAC and won three games by five points or fewer. 

Look for Auburn to come out angry, build a big halftime lead and cruise to a victory of 30 or more points. 

3. American/Mount St. Mary's over Duke

Duke might not have Cooper Flagg for the opening game, but luckily for the Blue Devils, they won't need him. The winner of the American-Mount St. Mary's First Four showdown will have trouble matching up with Duke's size and athleticism. 

Just like with Alabama State and St. Francis, neither of these squads were the best teams in their conference during the regular season. My guess is that Flagg rests until the weekend and Duke still wins big. 

2. Norfolk State over Florida

Florida ended the season on a roll, mowing through the SEC conference tournament. The Gators may be the most complete team in the country and are a popular pick to win it all. So why are they ranked second here?

It's because Norfolk State is the most talented No. 16 seed. The Spartans have three players who score in double digits - including senior guard Brian Moore, who averages 18.4 points. Norfolk State also is deep and experienced, two factors a team needs to pull off a massive upset. 

Florida is loaded and likely will cruise, but if a No. 16 seed has the ingredients to shock the world, it's Norfolk State. 

1. SIUE over Houston

I don't want to say any top seed is weak, but the one most likely to get upset probably is Houston. The reason is the Cougars have nights where they just can't make shots consistently. 

Now, they are a great rebounding team, so it likely won't matter. Although, one way to pull off a big upset is to hope the top seed misses a lot of shots. 

Houston also could be without J'Wan Roberts, who missed the last two games with an injury. SIUE got demolished by both Illinois and Indiana earlier this season, so an upset isn't likely. However, if the Cougars have a poor shooting performance like they did in low-scoring wins over Notre Dame and West Virginia, SIUE could stick around.