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The No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans will try to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16 when they face the No. 10 seed New Mexico Lobos on Sunday night in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Michigan State got off to a slow start against No. 15 seed Bryant on Friday, but it used a strong second half to pull away in an 87-62 win. New Mexico recorded one of the few upsets during the first round, beating No. 7 seed Marquette. The Lobos had lost their previous four NCAA Tournament games, winning for the first time since 2012.   

The game from Rocket Arena in Cleveland tips off at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Spartans are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. New Mexico odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 148.5. The Spartans are -310 money-line favorites. Before making any New Mexico vs. Michigan State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. New Mexico and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for New Mexico vs. Michigan State:

  • Michigan State vs. New Mexico spread: Michigan State -6.5
  • Michigan State vs. New Mexico over/under: 148.5 points 
  • Michigan State vs. New Mexico money line: Michigan State -310, New Mexico +248
  • MIST: 23-10-1 against the spread (ATS) this season 
  • UNM: 16-17 ATS this season 
  • Michigan State vs. New Mexico picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Michigan State can cover

Michigan State finished three games ahead of Maryland and Michigan atop the Big Ten standings before coming up just short against Wisconsin in the conference tournament semifinals. The Spartans led Bryant by just five points at halftime in the first round on Friday, but they outscored the Bulldogs 54-34 in the second half to cover the spread as 17-point favorites. Sophomore forward Coen Carr scored a team-high 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds off the bench.

Four other Michigan State players scored in double figures, showcasing the balance that led the Spartans to the Big Ten regular season title. They outrebounded Bryant 54-29 and pulled down a season-high 21 offensive rebounds. Michigan State has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games, while New Mexico has only covered three times in its past 10 contests. See which team to pick here.

Why New Mexico can cover 

New Mexico won the Mountain West regular-season title, earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after losing to Colorado State in the conference tournament. The Lobos made the most of their opportunity with a 75-66 win over Marquette in the first round, springing the upset as 4.5-point underdogs. Donovan Dent, the Mountain West Player of the Year, scored 21 points.

Nelly Junior Joseph added 19 points, including a layup with 6:17 remaining that kickstarted a late run that allowed New Mexico to take control. Dent averages 20.6 points per game, while Joseph averages a double-double with 14.1 points and 11.1 rebounds. See which team to pick here.

How to make Michigan State vs. New Mexico picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 147 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins New Mexico vs. Michigan State, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. New Mexico spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.