Michigan vs. Tennessee odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 Elite Eight picks from advanced model

A spot in the Final Four is on the line when the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines (34-3) take on the No. 6 seed Tennessee Volunteers (25-11) in the 2026 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Sunday. This Midwest Region final features one of the pre-tournament favorites in Michigan taking on a rejuvenated Tennessee squad that surged past Miami (Ohio), Virginia and Iowa State to advance to its third straight Elite Eight as a program. The Vols, however, have never made the Final Four. Michigan, meanwhile, has rolled to double-digit wins over Howard, Saint Louis and Alabama in March Madness 2026 thus far.

Tipoff from the United Center in Chicago is set for 2:15 p.m. ET on CBS. Michigan owns a 7-5 all-time record versus Tennessee, including four straight victories. The Wolverines are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Tennessee vs. Michigan odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 146.5. The Wolverines are at -389 on the money line. Before making any Michigan vs. Tennessee picks, check out the Tennessee vs. Michigan predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Elite Eight on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Tennessee vs. Michigan 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Michigan vs. Tennessee:

Top Michigan vs. Tennessee predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Tennessee vs. Purdue, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (146.5 points). Michigan has hit at least 90 points in all three of its NCAA Tournament games, and the Wolverines have gone over the total in three of their last four games overall. Tennessee, meanwhile, is averaging just under 80 points per game in March Madness and has seen strong perimeter shooting from guards Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Bishop Boswell.

The model is projecting that both teams clear 70 points in this matchup as Gillespie leads the way with 18 points for the Vols, while Yaxel Lendeborg paces Michigan with 16.6 points. A total of nine players are forecasted to score at least 9 points, as each team shows off its depth. The teams combine for 150 points as the Over hits in 58% of computer simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Tennessee vs. Michigan picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Michigan vs. Tennessee 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan vs. Tennessee, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.