Most likely upsets for March Madness 2026: NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams to target in your bracket picks

Filling out 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks will be a national pastime, and the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket features three teams that will be popular national championship picks. Duke, Michigan and Arizona are the top-three No. 1 seeds and are widely viewed as strong Final Four contenders. The fourth No. 1, Florida, is the defending champion, but the Gators lost head-to-head matchups with Duke and Arizona this year. They also have the top No. 2 seed, Houston, lurking in their region of the March Madness bracket 2026.

Can you trust these top seeds with your 2026 March Madness bracket picks, or are there NCAA Tournament sleepers and 2026 March Madness Cinderella picks who will send them packing far earlier than many bracket contest players anticipate? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Three 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams to watch out for

One potential 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket buster is the Akron Zips. The 12th-seeded Zips, who have very strong guard play, certainly have the pieces to make some noise in the March Madness bracket. Their bracket draw also helps their case. They get No. 5 Texas Tech in the first round, and the Red Raiders have been trending down since losing star JT Toppin (knee) for the season. They went just 3-4 in the seven games since that injury, and they enter the NCAA Tournament 2026 off a non-competitive 75-53 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament. Looking a bit ahead, Akron could draw No. 4 Alabama, a team dealing with legal uncertainty surrounding second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, in the second round, opening a clear path to the second weekend for the Zips. 

Another potential double-digit darling for 2026 March Madness is the High Point Panthers. The No. 12 seed in the West Region enters on a 14-game winning streak and as the Big Sky champion. High Point is coming off a program-record 30-win season at 30-4 overall. The Panthers have increased their win total in each of the last four years from 14 to 27 to 29 to now 30. The Panthers are coming off their second straight Big Sky title, and they challenged Purdue last year as a No. 13 seed before falling, 75-63, in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. High Point is 22-1 over its last 23 games, and the Panthers should be plenty confident entering March Madness.

Another Cinderella team to watch for is the California Baptist Lancers. The No. 13 seed from the East Region enters on a six-game winning streak after claiming the Western Athletic Conference title. The Lancers have won 15 of their last 17 games and are 25-8 this season. California Baptist has scored more than 80 points in four of its last five games. With how well their offense is playing lately, the Lancers are a candidate to get hot at the right time, potentially upset No. 4 Kansas in the first round, and go on a run. Check out more of the model's 2026 Cinderella picks and full 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.