NCAA bracket predictions: Model touts surprising March Madness 2026 tournament picks
SportsLine's model nailed 12 of the teams in the Sweet 16 last season and simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket 10,000 times
Purdue became the second-lowest seed (7) to win the Big Ten Tournament last weekend, giving the Boilermakers momentum heading into the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. They were the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll, and they have the most NCAA Tournament wins (51) among schools without a national title. This is their 11th consecutive appearance in the March Madness bracket, while star guard Braden Smith is one assist shy of tying Bobby Hurley for the most in NCAA history. How far should you have the No. 2 seed Boilermakers going in your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks?
The Boilermakers are in the same region of the 2026 March Madness bracket as No. 1 seed Arizona, which has the most wins by any Division I team without a Final Four appearance across the last five seasons. With Arizona and Purdue struggling in the Big Dance in recent years, is there a March Madness Cinderella pick you should be targeting from the West Region with your 2026 March Madness picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Georgia against No. 9 Saint Louis in the Midwest Region. Both teams have had solid seasons as Georgia (22-10) tied for seventh in the ultra-competitive SEC at 10-8, while Saint Louis (28-5) shared the Atlantic 10 Conference regular-season championship at 15-3. Georgia, which has seven top-50 Basketball Power Index wins, is led by guard Jeremiah Wilkinson, who averages 17 points in 30 games, including 21 starts. Saint Louis has three top-50 BPI wins and is led by senior center Robbie Avila, who is one of four players averaging double-digit scoring. Avila averages 12.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists in 33 games, all starts.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. Mick Cronin has been a regular participant in the NCAA Tournament since his days at Murray State and he'll make his 16th appearance in March Madness as a head coach after leading UCLA to a 23-11 campaign. Meanwhile, Johnny Dawkins guided UCF to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019 with a 20-11 season that included high-profile wins over Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU. They'll tip off at 7:25 p.m. ET on Friday at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Louisville is seeking its first NCAA Tournament victory since 2017, and it is 29-4 against South Florida all-time. The Cardinals are led by head coach Pat Kelsey, who became the first head coach to reach the Big Dance in his first two seasons at the helm in school history. South Florida is riding an 11-game winning streak under head coach Bryan Hodgson, who was named the 2025-26 American Coach of the Year. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.
