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The No. 5 seed Michigan Wolverines (25-9) ended the regular season poorly, dropping their final three games. However, they flourished in the Big Ten Tournament and won the title with close victories over Maryland and Wisconsin. Their reward for that success is a matchup against Big West champion and No. 12 seed UC San Diego on Thursday in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket. With the Wolverines only listed as 2.5-point favorites in the 2025 NCAA Tournament odds, the Tritons will could be one of the trendy 2025 March Madness upset picks. Can you trust the Wolverines to continue their momentum into the 2025 March Madness bracket? Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama's Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

Now, SportsLine's advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: First Four winner North Carolina knocks off No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round. Ole Miss hasn't seen the Round of 32 in 12 years, while the Tar Heels had a Sweet 16 run in 2024 and were in the National Championship Game in the prior NCAA Tournament, falling to champion Kansas in 2022.

The Rebels were ranked most of the season, peaking at No. 16, but they fell out of the Top 25 entirely in late February. They enter March Madness with five losses over their last eight games, with a 13.8-point average margin of defeat in those setbacks. They also narrowly scraped by in the three wins, prevailing by three points or fewer in each of them. Ole Miss is going in the wrong direction entering the tournament, and its stay could be short-lived in facing a First Four team that will have confidence after winning on Tuesday.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 13 Yale beats No. 4 Texas A&M. The Bulldogs have only lost once since 2025 began and boast a top-25 scoring offense (81.7 points per game). Yale is led by guard John Poulakidas, who scored 19.2 points per game, including a 25-point effort in the team's win over Cornell in the Ivy League Championship Game.

Texas A&M closed the season losing five of their last seven games, including a double overtime loss to rival Texas in the SEC Tournament. Senior guard Wade Taylor IV averaged 15.7 PPG and 4.3 assists and leads a team that likes to win lower scoring games. But the model sees this game being played at 7:25 p.m. ET on Thursday differently, picking the Bulldogs to advance to the second round against the winner of Michigan / UC San Diego in Denver. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that's only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.