NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Computer simulation predicts surprising upsets, sleepers, March Madness picks
When does the March Madness 2026 schedule start, and when are 2026 NCAA Tournament brackets due? The 2026 March Madness bracket begins on Thursday, March 19
College basketball fans will try to find 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams that can make a deep run in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. No. 11 seed VCU has lost only one game in the last two months, which came against Saint Louis, also in the 2026 March Madness bracket. VCU opens the Big Dance against No. 6 seed North Carolina, which is without star freshman Caleb Wilson. Should you include the Rams in your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks?
No. 11 seeds have won 38.8% of their first-round games since 1985, so they will be popular 2026 March Madness upset picks again this year. It is hard to find a deep sleeper though, as No. 15 seeds win just 6.9% of the time and No. 16 seeds have only won twice. Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. Iowa missed the last two NCAA Tournaments, but it is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2023. The Hawkeyes allowed the fewest points per game (66.0) in the Big Ten this season, snapping a streak of nine straight seasons allowing at least 70 points.
They are coached by Ben McCollum, who brought six players with him from Drake after the Bulldogs advanced to the Round of 32 last year. Clemson is just 4-6 across its last 10 games and lost to No. 12 seed McNeese State in the Round of 64 last season. The Tigers are the only power-conference team with zero players scoring 12-plus points per game, while Iowa's Bennett Stirtz scores 20 points per game.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary's. Aggies head coach Bucky McMillan got his start as a high school coach in Alabama while Gaels head coach Randy Bennett has been in charge of the Gaels since 2001. However, this game will likely be decided by which team dictates the tempo, with Texas A&M ranking 29th in adjusted possessions per 40 minutes and Saint Mary's ranking 297th.
In their only matchup against an SEC opponent this season, the Gaels gave up 96 points to Vanderbilt in a loss and the Commodores also play fast an efficiently offensively. Saint Mary's was also only 1-4 in Quad 1 games this season and the Aggies constitute an extremely tough first-round matchup after a great season in the WCC. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.
How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
