NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, top upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10K times
SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds
The Duke Blue Devils are the No. 1 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, but a look over their East Region opponents may make you wonder if they were given any favors. The East is stacked with some of the best programs and coaches in the nation, including No. 2 UConn, No. 3 Michigan State, No. 4 Kansas and No. 5 St. John's. That means if 38-year-old Jon Scheyer leads his Blue Devils to the Final Four of March Madness 2026, he may need to knock off elite coaches like Dan Hurley, Tom Izzo, Bill Self, and Rick Pitino.
That could make building 2026 March Madness bracket picks in the East Region a daunting challenge, considering the array of talent and coaching. What is the best way to attack this region when forming a 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket strategy? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Villanova has won eight consecutive Round of 64 games, which is the third-longest active streak in college basketball. The Wildcats have not been in the Big Dance since 2022, when they lost in the Final Four in their final season under head coach Jay Wright. Utah State is seeking multiple wins in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1970, as it has gone 20 straight appearances without winning two games, which is the longest streak by any school ever.
Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Tigers weren't particularly impressive down the stretch, but Quad-1 wins against Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M were enough to get the Tigers in the field. Miami might be the stronger team on paper as the Hurricanes have a balanced portfolio with strong offensive and defensive metrics. The Tigers, however, did get the extremely favorable draw of playing their first-round game in St. Louis, just a couple hours from campus, giving them a de factor home-court advantage in this one.
The third matchup to watch in the West Region is No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. There wasn't much rest for the Arkansas Razorbacks last week, and after winning the SEC Tournament championship on Sunday, No. 4 Arkansas takes a cross-country flight to Portland to take on No. 13 Hawaii in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. Hawaii earned an automatic bid as the Big West Tournament champions, and at least playing in Portland isn't nearly as far for the Rainbow Warriors as they could have been sent. Hawaii, playing in its second NCAA Tournament in the last 24 years, is 24-8, but it hasn't played a ranked opponent this season. Meanwhile, Arkansas has played 11 ranked teams, going 5-6 in those contests under John Calipari. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.
