NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, upsets, Cinderella teams: Best model simulates March Madness 10K times
SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds

All four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for just the second time last season, which will dictate 2026 NCAA Tournament picks for many fans. The top seeds are considered elite again this season, headlined by No. 1 overall seed Duke, which has only lost two games entering March Madness 2026. However, there has never been an instance of more than two No. 1 seeds making the Final Four in consecutive years. Figuring out how to approach the top seeds in the 2026 March Madness bracket will play a pivotal role in everyone's March Madness bracket strategy.
No. 1 seed Florida is trying to become the second school to repeat as national champion multiple times, as the Gators are the defending champions and won back-to-back titles in 2006-07. The SEC sent a record 14 teams to the Big Dance last year, and there are a conference-high 10 SEC teams in the 2026 March Madness field of 64 this year. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Nova's won eight straight Round of 64 games but is making its first tourney appearance since Jay Wright retired. The Wildcats dropped all five of their games versus ranked teams this season, while Utah State didn't face a single ranked squad en route to a 28-6 record. It split its two matchups versus 2025 NCAA tourney teams as the Aggies rely on their interior scoring, ranking in the top 15 in both FG% and 2P%.
Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Hurricanes are having a magical season in the revenue sports, with the football team making it to the national championship game and the basketball team piling up 25 wins in Jai Lucas' first season at the helm. Meanwhile, Dennis Gates has now guided the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament in three of his four seasons with the program. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET and it's a virtual home game for Mizzou with the game being played at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis.
The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas is coming off its first SEC Tournament title since 2000, as head coach John Calipari extended his record for most SEC Tournament titles to seven. The Razorbacks are led by star freshmen Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, who became the first SEC freshman duo since 2016-17 to average over 15 points per game each. They are facing a Hawaii team that is in the Big Dance for the sixth time in school history and the first time since 2016, when it took down No. 4 seed California in the first round. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.
















