NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, upsets, Cinderella teams: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times
SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds
The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket includes 10 teams from the SEC and the conference has received a staggering 24 bids over the course of the last two seasons. The Florida Gators earned a No. 1 seed once again after winning the SEC regular-season title. The reigning national champions could be the league's best chance at a deep run again in the March Madness bracket 2026.
The SEC was followed by the Big Ten (9), ACC (8) and Big 12 (8) for most bids by conference in March Madness 2026. So which conference has the most success this season and how can you set yourself up to dominate your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. The Big East only got three teams into the 2026 NCAA Tournament field, but Villanova ended a three-year absence after a 24-8 season under Kevin Willard. Meanwhile, Utah State went 28-6 to win the Mountain West regular-season and tournament titles and is making its fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. They'll tip off at 4:10 p.m. ET on Friday in San Diego at Viejas Arena.
Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. Missouri started both the season and SEC play strongly before fading a bit down the stretch, entering March Madness on a three-game losing streak. The Tigers opened 10-2 overall and knocked off defending conference and national champion Florida in its SEC opener. They enter March Madness at 20-12 overall and 10-8 in the conference. Miami isn't coming off an end the Hurricanes are partially proud of, either, losing two of three, including a 22-point loss to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. Miami made one of the nation's top turnarounds this year, though, entering at 25-8 after seven wins last season.
The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas head coach John Calipari is trying to avoid becoming the first head coach to lose three straight Round of 64 games as a No. 4 seed or better, as he lost as a No. 3 seed with Kentucky (vs. Oakland) in 2024 and as a No. 2 seed with Kentucky (vs. Saint Peter's) in 2022. The Razorbacks have the third-most points from freshmen in the field this season, while Hawaii has the second-most points from upperclassmen. This is the third all-time meeting between these schools; the other two meetings occurred on back-to-back days in 1977. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.
