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Most 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks will feature a No. 1 seed cutting down the nets after all four top seeds advanced to the Final Four last year. However, looking past the No. 1 seeds could create an advantageous position for 2026 March Madness picks. The No. 2 seeds include 2025 runner-up Houston, 2023 and 2024 champion UConn, and Big Ten Tournament winner Purdue. All three of those teams could make deep runs in the 2026 March Madness bracket, but which one is the best NCAA Tournament pick to win?

While correctly picking the national champion is the most important aspect of any 2026 March Madness bracket strategy, it is also crucial to identify 2026 March Madness Cinderella picks during the first weekend. Which double-digit seeds should you target in your 2026 March Madness pools? Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. Iowa has completely changed its style under first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who led Drake to the Round of 32 in last year's Big Dance. He brought six players with him to Iowa, including Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz. That move has paid dividends, with Stirtz averaging 20.0 points and 4.5 assists per game this season.

The Hawkeyes play at the eighth-slowest adjusted tempo in college basketball, according to KenPom. They are facing a Clemson team that does not have anyone scoring 12 points per game, and second-leading scorer Carter Welling tore his ACL in the ACC Tournament. The Tigers lost to No. 12 seed McNeese State in the Round of 64 last season, and they are in line for another first-round exit this year.  

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary's. Aggies head coach Bucky McMillan got his start as a high school coach in Alabama while Gaels head coach Randy Bennett has been in charge of the Gaels since 2001. However, this game will likely be decided by which team dictates the tempo, with Texas A&M ranking 29th in adjusted possessions per 40 minutes and Saint Mary's ranking 297th.

In their only matchup against an SEC opponent this season, the Gaels gave up 96 points to Vanderbilt in a loss and the Commodores also play fast an efficiently offensively. Saint Mary's was also only 1-4 in Quad 1 games this season and the Aggies constitute an extremely tough first-round matchup after a great season in the WCC. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.