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One of the keys to doing well in your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks is being able to find the perfect mix between riding the favorites and finding which teams are ripe for an upset. There have been some doozies in past tournaments, like No. 16 UMBC upsetting top-seeded Virginia in 2018 and No. 16 Farleigh Dickinson knocking off No. 1 Purdue in 2023. One of those teams that could pull off an upset or two this year as one of the potential 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams is the fifth-seeded Wisconsin Badgers in the West region.

If the Badgers can get on a roll by beating No. 12 High Point, no easy task, they could face No. 4 Arkansas and No. 1 seed Arizona, two teams the Badgers won't be afraid of after going to-to-toe with Illinois and Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin, coached by Bo Ryan protégé Greg Gard, has won five of its last six games and has registered wins at No. 2 Michigan, at No. 8 Illinois and at No. 15 Purdue, as well as against the Illini last Friday. Is Wisconsin a team to back when making 2026 March Madness picks or filling out 2026 NCAA Tournament brackets? Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 5 Vanderbilt defeats No. 4 Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16. The model expects both teams to survive the opening round and square off in an SEC vs. Big Ten battle over the weekend. Nebraska climbed as high as No. 5 in the nation during its 20-0 start to the season, but beginning with its loss to Michigan to end the perfect record, the Cornhuskers are just 6-6 over their last 12 contests. Nebraska has allowed at least 74 points in five of its last 12 games, after doing so just three times over its 20-0 start.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has been on a roll over the last few weeks, scoring 91 points against No. 4 Florida in a 17-point victory to reach the SEC Championship Game. The Commodores lost in the SEC final, but Vanderbilt's No. 12 scoring offense can run teams out of the gym. The Commodores average 86.4 points per game this season, compared to a defensively focused Cornhuskers team that ranks 17th in scoring defense but 114th in scoring offense. The model is backing the offensively gifted Commodores in what it projects as a likely second-round matchup.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M defeats No. 7 Saint Mary's to advance to the Round of 32. The Aggies tied for fourth in the SEC regular season and won four of their last six games, including a triple-overtime 94-91 win at LSU on March 7. The strength of the SEC is unmatched, as 10 SEC teams have made it into the NCAA Tournament field. Saint Mary's is just one of three West Coast Conference teams in the tournament.

Texas A&M enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament with the ninth-best scoring offense in Division I, averaging 87.7 points per game, while Saint Mary's is tied for 116th at 78.2 points. Although this is the Gaels' fifth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament, they are coming off a 76-71 loss to Santa Clara in the WCC Tournament semifinals. The Aggies also are led by seniors Rashaun Agee (14.7 points), Rylan Griffen (11.6) and Marcus Hill (10.8), the team's top three scorers. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.