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The No. 7 seed Saint Mary's Gaels (28-5) will try to build on a strong season in the West Coast Conference when they face the No. 10 seed Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12) from the SEC in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Friday afternoon. Saint Mary's won the WCC regular-season title by three games over second-place Gonzaga, but the Bulldogs got revenge in the WCC Tournament title game. Vanderbilt faced much stingier competition throughout the season, finishing ninth in the SEC standings. The Commodores, who are led by first-year head coach Mark Byington, are in the tournament for the first time since 2017.   

The game from Rocket Arena in Cleveland tips off at 3:15 p.m. ET. The Gaels are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 136.5. Before making any Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's:

  • Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt spread: Saint Mary's -4.5
  • Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt over/under: 135.5 points 
  • Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt money line: Saint Mary's -203, Vanderbilt +168
  • SMARY: 14-18 against the spread (ATS) this season 
  • VANDY: 18-14 ATS this season 
  • Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Saint Mary's can cover

Saint Mary's is led by a veteran head coach in Randy Bennett, who has been at the helm since the 2001-02 season. Bennett brings an experienced roster with him to Cleveland for the opening weekend of the Big Dance, where they will try to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2010. The Gaels spent the second half of the season ranked inside the top 25, winning the WCC regular-season title with ease. 

They are back in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive season, and they swept their season series against rival Gonzaga. Seniors Mitchell Saxen, Augustas Marciulionis and Luke Barrett combine to average 34.7 points per game, while Paulius Murauskas grabs a team-high 8.0 rebounds per game. Defensively, Saint Mary's is allowing just 60.7 points per game. See which team to pick here.

Why Vanderbilt can cover 

Vanderbilt is also eyeing a return to the second weekend of the Big Dance, which is a stage the Commodores have not reached since 2007. They appear to have found the right head coach for the job, as Byington led James Madison to the second round last March before taking this job. He has a trio of double-digit scorers in Jason Edwards (17.0 ppg), Tyler Nickel (10.5) and Devin McGlockton (10.4), who were all transfer additions. 

The Commodores are significantly more battle tested than the Gaels after playing in the sport's best conference this season. Saint Mary's only had a few stressful games during the regular season, which could be a factor down the stretch on Friday. Vanderbilt brings a top-50 scoring offense into this tilt, averaging 79.6 points per game. See which team to pick here.

How to make Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 144 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.