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The 12-seed Northern Iowa Panthers will battle the 5-seed St. John's Red Storm in a first-round matchup in the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Friday. Northern Iowa (23-12) won the MVC Tournament as the lowest seed in history, beating UIC 84-69 in the championship game. The Red Storm (28-6) won the Big East regular-season title and conference tournament. St. John's boasts the Big East Player of the Year, Zuby Ejiofor, who averages an impressive 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. The Panthers have won their last five games, while the Red Storm have won 19 of their last 20. 

Tipoff from the Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl in San Diego is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. St John's is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Northern Iowa vs St. John's odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 132.5. Before making any St. John's vs. Northern Iowa picks, check out the Northern Iowa vs. St. John's predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the NCAA tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Northern Iowa vs St. John's 10,000 times and just revealed its men's college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Northern Iowa vs St. John's:

Northern Iowa vs St. John's spread:    

St. Johns -10.5

Northern Iowa vs St. John's over/under:    

132.5 points

Northern Iowa vs St. John's money line:    

St. John's -621, Northern Iowa +446

Northern Iowa vs St. John's picks:    

See picks at SportsLine

Northern Iowa vs St. John's TV:

CBS

Top Northern Iowa vs St. John's predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Northern Iowa vs St. John's, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (131.5 points). The total has gone over in the Panthers' last two games. St. John's is a strong defensive team, but the Red Storm averaged 78.3 points per game during its Big East Tournament run. 

The model projects the Panthers to have four players score 10 points or more, including Trey Campbell, who is projected to score 15. The Red Storm are projected to have three players score 12 points or more, led by Ejiofor, who is projected to score 16s. The model is projecting the Over to clear in 81% of simulations. You can get the full Northern Iowa vs. St. John's picks at SportsLine.

How to make Northern Iowa vs St. John's picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of St. John's vs. Northern Iowa 10,000 times and says one side of the spread cashes well over 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Northern Iowa vs St. John's, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the St. John's vs. Northern Iowa spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.