USATSI

Rick Pitino and John Calipari are two of the most polarizing coaches in college basketball history, and they'll go head-to-head to try to bring yet another program to a Sweet 16. Pitino leads the No. 2 seed St. John's Red Storm against the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Saturday. St. John's (31-4) is seeking its first Sweet 16 appearance since 1999 as the Red Storm have become the sixth different program Pitino brought to an NCAA Tournament, which is an NCAA record. Arkansas (21-13) looks to return to the Sweet 16 for the fourth time over the last five years, but it would be the first time under Calipari in his first year at the school. Arkansas leading scorer Adou Thiero (knee) is questionable after missing the first round. 

The game from Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, R.I., tips off at 2:40 p.m. ET. The Red Storm are 7.5-point favorites in the latest St. John's vs. Arkansas odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 146.5. Before making any Arkansas vs. St. John's picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on St. John's vs. Arkansas and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Arkansas vs. St. John's:

  • St. John's vs. Arkansas spread: St. John's -7.5
  • St. John's vs. Arkansas over/under: 146.5 points 
  • St. John's vs. Arkansas money line: St. John's -313, Arkansas +251
  • SJ: The Red Storm are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) over their last nine games
  • ARK: The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games as an underdog
  • St. John's vs. Arkansas picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why St. John's can cover

Pitino had a halftime speech from during the year that went viral from an in-season documentary being made about his second season at St. John's, and whatever he said at halftime on Thursday may want to be reviewed again. St. John's outscored Omaha 50-25 in the second half of its 83-53 victory in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Much of the Red Storm's success this season has come from a dominant defensive effort, as displayed in that second half against Omaha. St. John's is 22nd in the nation in scoring defense (65.5 points per game).

RJ Luis Jr., a junior guard and Big East Player of the Year, had 22 points and eight rebounds, including making 5 of 8 3-pointers, against Omaha on Thursday. Luis had 29 points and 10 rebounds in the Big East Championship as the versatile 6-foot-7 guard is playing his best in the most important games. The Red Storm have the No. 8 average score margin (+13.3) in the nation this year under Pitino, who has won two national championships and reached seven Final Fours with a 55-21 record (.723 win percentage) in the NCAA Tournament over his career. See which team to pick here.

Why Arkansas can cover 

After losing its first five SEC games, not many people would have given the Razorbacks much of a chance at reaching the Sweet 16, but the newly formed Razorbacks lineup improved as the season went on under Calipari. Arkansas won four of its final five SEC games before going 1-1 in the SEC Tournament to earn an at-large bid. The Razorbacks upset Kansas, 79-72, in the first round behind 22 points from senior 6-11 forward Jonas Aidoo.

Arkansas had a significant boost in the first round with freshman Boogie Fland, who was ranked No. 20 in the Class of 2024 by 247 Sports. Fland played in his first game since Jan. 18 following thumb surgery. The 6-2 guard added six points, three assists and three steals in his first game in two months and he's Arkansas' second-leading scorer at 14.6 ppg over 19 contests. His return adds depth to an Arkansas team led by fifth-year senior guard Johnell Davis, who had plenty of NCAA Tournament experience at Florida Atlantic before transferring to Arkansas this year. See which team to pick here.

How to make St. John's vs. Arkansas picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 145 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Arkansas vs. St. John's, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the St. John's vs. Arkansas spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.