Tampa Bay Derby 2026 predictions, odds, time: Picks from expert who hit Kentucky Derby trifecta

The 2026 Kentucky Derby qualifiers continue on Saturday with the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs in Tampa, Fla. This Grade-3 race covers 1 1/16 miles and has a $400,000 purse. With its timing in early March and with 50 qualifying points going to the winner, this is a popular stop for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, who will then often run one more prep race before heading to the Run for the Roses in early May. 

The latest 2026 Tampa Bay Derby odds list Further Ado as the 9-5 favorite. Canaletto (5-2), Powershift (7-2) and The Puma (8-1) are among the other Tampa Bay Derby contenders. Post time is at 5:35 p.m. ET. Before making any 2026 Tampa Bay Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions from SportsLine's Gene Menez.

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Menez, who called Disco Time's win in the Lecomte Stakes last year, is one SportsLine's top horse racing expert and he has a lengthy history of calling winners. He's had several huge calls recently, including giving out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby in 2014. Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall.

Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. He also hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. And in November, Menez finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country. Anyone following his horse racing betting advice could have been way up.

For the Tampa Bay Derby 2026, Menez has handicapped the field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Tampa Bay Derby predictions

One of Menez's surprising Tampa Bay Derby picks: He is completely fading Further Ado, even though he is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in November, but otherwise doesn't have much on his resume that suggests he's worthy to be the favorite in this race.

"While his maiden victory was absurdly fast, his other three starts are nothing special," Menez told SportsLine. Menez is not using Further Ado on his 2026 Tampa Bay Derby betting card. See which horses to back here, and you can make Tampa Bay Derby bets at TwinSpires here:

How to make 2026 Tampa Bay Derby picks, best bets

Menez's top pick is a horse who "should be able to get a forward, ground-saving trip." He also is high on a longshot who is "within striking distance of the favorites. You can see who they are, and get all of Menez's 2026 Tampa Bay Derby picks, over at SportsLine. 

Which horse wins the Tampa Bay Derby 2026, and how should you construct your wagers? Check out the latest 2026 Tampa Bay Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks, all from the expert who nailed a trifecta at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. 

2026 Tampa Bay Derby horses, odds