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The Midwest Region title and a spot in the Final Four is on the line when the second-seeded Tennessee Volunteers battle the top-seeded Houston Cougars on Sunday in the Elite Eight of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Tennessee advanced with a 78-65 win over Kentucky, while Houston edged Purdue 62-60 in the Sweet 16 on Friday. The Volunteers (30-7), who are in the Elite Eight for the second year in a row and third time ever, have never advanced to the Final Four. The Cougars (33-4), who are in the Elite Eight for the eighth time, are looking to make it to the Final Four for the seventh time and first since 2021. 

Tipoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 2:20 p.m. ET. Tennessee holds a 3-2 edge in the all-time series, with the Volunteers earning a 69-49 win in their last meeting in 1995. Houston is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Tennessee vs. Houston odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 126.5, up three from the opening line. Houston's over/under for total team points is 64.5, while Tennessee's is 62.5. Before making any Houston vs. Tennessee picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-168 roll (+1815) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Tennessee vs. Houston and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Houston vs. Tennessee:

  • Tennessee vs. Houston spread: Houston -2.5
  • Tennessee vs. Houston over/under: 126.5 points  
  • Tennessee vs. Houston money line: Houston -154, Tennessee +129
  • TEN: The Volunteers have hit the money line in 30 of their last 39 games (+14.15 units)  
  • HOU: The Cougars have hit the game total under in 20 of their last 38 games (+1.60 units)  
  • Tennessee vs. Houston picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Houston can cover

Senior guard L.J. Cryer will look to get back to form against the Volunteers. He was held to just five points in the Sweet 16 win over Purdue, making 1 of 5 3-pointers, but he led the Big 12 with 111 treys, hitting 42.4% of his 3-point shots on the year. In the 81-76 second-round win over Gonzaga, he poured in 30 points, including six 3-pointers. In 37 games this season, all starts, he is averaging 15.3 points, 2.1 rebounds and two assists in 32.2 minutes. He is also a 91.3% free-throw shooter.

Also helping power the Cougars is junior guard Emanuel Sharp. In 34 games this season, including 33 starts, he is averaging 12.6 points, three rebounds and 1.4 steals in 27 minutes. He scored 17 points with two rebounds in the win over the Boilermakers on Friday. In a 74-54 win over BYU in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals, he poured in 26 points, while grabbing four rebounds. See which team to pick here.

Why Tennessee can cover 

Senior guard Chaz Lanier leads the SEC in 3-pointers, and has connected on 121 of 299 treys this season (40.5%). In the 67-58 win over UCLA in the second round, the sharp-shooter was 4-for-5 from 3-point range and finished with 20 points, four rebounds and two assists. He had 17 points and four boards in Friday's win over Kentucky. In 37 games, all starts, he is averaging 18 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 31.3 minutes.

Senior guard Zakai Zeigler, who just set the single-season SEC assists record, is also a big reason for the Volunteers' success this season. He is coming off a double-double in the win over Kentucky with 18 points and 10 assists. He scored 15 points with six assists and three rebounds against UCLA in the second round. He registered a double-double with 12 points and 12 assists in a 77-62 first-round win over Wofford. In 36 games, all starts, he is averaging 13.9 points, 7.5 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.9 steals in 34.2 minutes. See which team to pick here.

How to make Houston vs. Tennessee picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 136 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Tennessee vs. Houston, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Tennessee vs. Houston spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned nearly $1,900 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.