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A pair of 22-win teams will square off on Thursday in an NCAA Tournament 2025 first-round matchup. The South Region contest will see No. 4 seed Texas A&M (22-10) taking on the No. 13 seed Yale Bulldogs (22-7). Texas A&M finished fifth in the SEC and struggled down the stretch, going 2-5 over its last seven contests. As for the Bulldogs, they won both their league's regular season and conference tournament, winning 16 of their final 17 games. Texas A&M won the lone meeting between the programs back in 1975.

The game from Ball Arena in Denver tips off at 7:25 p.m. ET. The Aggies are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Yale vs. Texas A&M odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 140.5. Yale's over/under for total team points is 66.5. Before making any Texas A&M vs. Yale picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas A&M vs. Yale and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Yale vs. Texas A&M:

  • Texas A&M vs. Yale spread: Texas A&M -7.5
  • Texas A&M vs. Yale over/under: 140.5 points 
  • Texas A&M vs. Yale money line: Texas A&M -304, Yale +245
  • YALE: The Bulldogs are 18-10 against the spread (ATS)
  • TAMU: The Aggies are 18-13-1 ATS
  • Texas A&M vs. Yale picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Texas A&M can cover

The Aggies have two true go-to scorers in Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps. The former is a three-time All-SEC selection, is the Aggies' all-time leading scorer, and has scored 21-plus in back-to-back March Madness games. As for Phelps, he averages 14.1 points and has a knack for playing his best versus top-tier competition. He reached the 20-point threshold four times this season, with all four games coming against 2025 NCAA Tournament teams, including a career-high of 34 versus Oklahoma.

Those two can exploit an inconsistent Yale defense that ranks 53rd amongst tournament teams in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings. Yale lacks size, with just one of its top eight players standing taller than 6-foot-7, which could present problems versus an A&M team that pounds the offensive glass. The Aggies average the most offensive rebounds in all of Division I, and they live at the line, averaging 25 free throw attempts per game. See which team to pick here.

Why Yale can cover 

Yale has been in this position before being a 13-seed taking on a 4-seed, and it was just last year. In the 2024 tournament, the Bulldogs upset the No. 4 Auburn Tigers, with John Poulakidas the standout performer with 28 points. Now a senior, Poulakidas has built off that performance as he leads the Ivy League with 19.2 points per game. Poulakidas powers an offense that averages a program record of 81.7 points as Yale ranks among the top 12 teams in the country in offensive rating, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. 

Coach James Jones' squad doesn't let up on the defensive end either as it leads the Ivy League in both points allowed per game and field goal percentage, while ranking second in the conference in blocks per game and 3-point percentage allowed. This defense should cause issues for the Aggies, who are among the worst-shooting teams in the nation. Texas A&M is outside the top 300 in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage, with the Aggies being held under 40% from the field in five of their last seven games. See which team to pick here.

How to make Texas A&M vs. Yale picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Yale vs. Texas A&M 10,000 times and is leaning Over on the total, projecting 142 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas A&M vs. Yale, and which side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Yale vs. Texas A&M spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.