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The Xavier Musketeers (21-11) and the Texas Longhorns (19-15) square off in a 2025 First Four matchup on Wednesday. The winner of this game locks down the No. 11 seed in the Midwest and plays No. 6 seed Illinois Fight Illini on Friday. Xavier had its seven-game win streak halted last time out. In the Big East quarterfinal, Marquette beat the Musketeers 89-87 on March 13. On the other side, Texas fell to Tennessee 82-73 in the SEC quarterfinals on March 14.

Tipoff from the University of Dayton Arena is at 9:10 p.m. ET. The latest Texas vs. Xavier odds via the SportsLine Consensus list the Musketeers as 3.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 151.5. Before making any Xavier vs. Texas picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Xavier vs. Texas and just revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Texas vs. Xavier: 

  • Xavier vs. Texas spread: Musketeers -3.5
  • Xavier vs. Texas over/under: 151.5 points 
  • Xavier vs. Texas money line: Musketeers -158, Longhorns +133
  • Xavier vs. Texas picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Xavier vs. Texas streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why Xavier can cover

Senior forward Zach Freemantle is a skilled big men in the frontcourt who can knock down perimeter jumpers. Freemantle leads the team in both points (17.3) and rebounds (7.1). The New Jersey native has logged more than 20 points and six rebounds in three of his last four games. On March 8 against Providence, he had 25 points and eight boards.

In the backcourt, junior guard Ryan Conwell is a floor-spacing shooter. He averages 16.8 points, 2.5 assists and makes 41% from 3-point land. In his previous outing, Conwell put up a season-high 38 points, three assists and went 7-of-11 from beyond the arc. That was his fifth straight game with 20-plus points. See which side to pick at SportsLine.

Why Texas can cover

Freshman guard Tre Johnson is expected to be a lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. He leads the team in points (19.8) with three rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He has registered eight games with 25-plus points this season. On Feb. 26 against Arkansas, Johnson poured in 39 points, four assists and went 7-of-11 from 3-point land.

Senior forward Arthur Kaluma gives Texas an athletic disruptor in the frontcourt. He ranks first on the team in rebounds (7.6) with 12.4 points. He notched eight double-doubles this campaign. In the March 4 against Mississippi State, Kaluma had 10 points and 11 boards. See which side to pick at SportsLine.

How to make Xavier vs. Texas picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, predicting that the teams will combine for 153 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. See which side to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Xavier vs. Texas, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,000 on top-rated spread picks since 2023, and find out.