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The No. 7 seed UCLA Bruins (22-10) square off against the No. 10 seed Utah State Aggies (26-7) on Thursday in a first-round matchup in the Midwest Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Bruins' regular season came to a close with an 86-70 loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten semifinals. UCLA went 13-7 in Big Ten games in their first season in the conference. Utah State lost to Colorado State 83-72 in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals. The Aggies posted a 15-5 record in conference games during the regular season. Guard Christian Horry is questionable for the Bruins. 

Tipoff from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, is set for 9:25 p.m. ET. UCLA is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest UCLA vs. Utah State odds from SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 144.5. UCLA's over/under for total team points is 74.5. Before making any Utah State vs. UCLA picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Utah State vs. UCLA and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for UCLA vs. Utah State:

  • UCLA vs. Utah State spread: UCLA -5.5
  • UCLA vs. Utah State over/under: 144.5 points 
  • UCLA vs. Utah State money line: UCLA -240, Utah State +196
  • UCLA: The Bruins are 18-12-2 against the spread this season.
  • USU: The Aggies are 16-16 against the spread this season.
  • UCLA vs. Utah State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why UCLA can cover

The Bruins are the more battle-tested team in this NCAA Tournament matchup. UCLA played the 44th most difficult schedule in the country and owns a 5-3 record against top-25 opponents this season. The Bruins are making their fifth trip to the NCAA Tournament under head coach Mick Cronin, with their best finish being a Final Four appearance in 2021. 

The Bruins are deep with nine players averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game this season. UCLA has three players averaging double figures in scoring, led by forward Tyler Bilodeau. The 6-foot-9 junior is averaging 13.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. See which team to pick here. 

Why Utah State can cover 

The Aggies are making their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. In his first season on the job, head coach Jerrod Calhoun guided Utah State to a 26-7 overall and 15-5 conference record. The Aggies covered the spread in two of their last three games leading into the NCAA Tournament.

The Aggies are led by a dynamic backcourt that features senior Ian Martinez and sophomore Mason Falslev. Martinez leads the team in scoring, averaging 16.8 points, while also contributing 3.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Falslev is right behind him averaging 14.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.3 steals per game. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Utah State vs. UCLA picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting 149 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins UCLA vs. Utah State, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its college basketball picks, and find out.