2018 WGC-Mexico Championship picks, field: Johnson, Fleetwood look to keep pace

The first WGC event of the calendar year takes place this week south of the United States at the WGC-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec. Last year's first foray into Mexico as a PGA Tour stop was a wild success and resulted in some absolutely insane shots and scores.

In the end, Dustin Johnson got the best of Ross Fisher and Tommy Fleetwood and won this event for the second time in three years (Johnson also won it in 2015 when it was at Doral). Most of the top 50 golfers in the world will be present this week for the $10 million purse, but Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama are all sitting this one out for various reasons.

Let's take a look at this week's contest.

Event information

What: WGC-Mexico Championship | Where: Naucalpan, Mexico | When: March 1-4

Field and odds

• Dustin Johnson: 6-1
• Justin Thomas: 8-1
• Jon Rahm: 12-1
• Jordan Spieth: 12-1
• Tommy Fleetwood: 16-1
• Rickie Fowler: 18-1
• Phil Mickelson: 18-1
• Justin Rose: 20-1

Field strength: A

That's a big leap from Thomas, who is now a bigger favorite than both Rahm and Spieth. I understand why -- he's coming off a huge win at the Honda Classic and played well here last year -- but there's certainly better value in both Rahm and Spieth at 12-1 than in Thomas at 8-1. Also, beware of Patrick Cantlay at 33-1. Always beware of Patrick Cantlay. 

Three stories to watch

1. A beat on No. 1: We haven't seen Jon Rahm in a few weeks, but the Spaniard has a chance to catch D.J. for the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. It's a slim chance given that Johnson has to finish T58 or worse and Rahm has to win, but it's still a reminder of just how good Rahm has been over the last year (he finished T3 here in 2017).

2. Spieth's move: You know it's coming, it's just a matter of when. This to me feels like the week Jordan Spieth reminds everybody that the title of "best player in the world" is one he would rather not give up. Following a Genesis Open where he seemed to find his putting stroke and a Honda Classic in which Thomas matched Spieth's win total of eight through 101 PGA Tour events, I think Spieth is going to have a monster week in Mexico. Here's what he said about that putting stroke after the Genesis.

"I was kind of, you know, skiing uphill with my putting after Phoenix and the beginning of Pebble week and really just for a little while now through the new year," Spieth said. "I just made some tremendous progress. I putted extremely well this week, which is awesome. I feel great about the state of my game going forward. I feel like I'm in a great place at this time of the year as we're starting to head into major season."

3. Roses in bloom? Justin Rose has a chance to join Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson as the only golfers to win back-to-back WGC events. He took the WGC-HSBC Champions from Johnson in October with a 67 in the final round, and he quietly has 11 top-10 showings in his last 12 events worldwide. He didn't play well at this event last year, but there hasn't been anywhere he hasn't played well over the last five months.

Past winners

• 2017: Dustin Johnson
• 2016: Adam Scott (Doral)
• 2015: Dustin Johnson (Doral)
• 2014: Patrick Reed (Doral)
• 2013: Tiger Woods (Doral)

It feels like a safe bet that we're getting a big name winner this week in Mexico given the field strength and recent history of this tournament's champs. In fact, the entire recent list of WGC winners is downright crazy.

Here are all of them since 2013:

• Dustin Johnson (5)
• Tiger Woods (2)
• Matt Kuchar
• Jason Day (2)
• Rory McIlroy (2)
  
• Patrick Reed
• Bubba Watson
• Shane Lowry
• Russell Knox
• Adam Scott
• Hideki Matsuyama (2)
• Justin Rose

That is a big boy list.

WGC-Mexico Championship picks