Rory McIlroy showed up to last season's DP World Tour Championship already assured of claiming his fifth Race to Dubai title no matter his play in the season finale on the European circuit. While well out in front in this year's race, McIlroy has some work to do if he is to capture his third straight season-long crown and the sixth of his career.
Building up a near 1,800-point lead over Thirston Lawrence, the four-time major champion requires a solo 11th-place finish or better to secure another successful European conquest. If he is to fall short of this, McIlroy will hope that Lawrence -- the only player in the 50-man field capable of usurping him -- stays out of the winner's circle.
"It's nice to have a chance, obviously," Lawrence said. "It's going to take a lot. I think I need to win and Rory probably needs to finish outside the top 10. I haven't done the maths yet. But just incredible to have an opportunity. So I'm very grateful just to be inside the top 50 to be able to compete this week. It's been an unbelievable year, and yeah, Rory has been an idol for me since growing up as a youngster, and being able to clinch it this week would be the cherry on the cake for myself."
Making McIlroy's advantage all the more impressive is the manner in which it has been accomplished. While Lawrence has teed it up in 25 DP World Tour events, McIlroy has needed just 12 to nearly put the contest away. His campaign began with a two-week stint in Dubai where he captured a runner-up finish and a record fourth Dubai Desert Classic trophy.
A final-hole mishap in his season opener may have been a sign of things to come as McIlroy's 2024 can be defined not only by his consistency but also his close calls. His second runner-up finish of the season came in heartbreaking fashion at the U.S. Open before another near miss came in his defense of the Scottish Open.
The summer of almosts continued for the Northern Irishman as an ill-timed double bogey on the back nine of the Olympics caused his name to fall out of medal contention. He returned to his home country the following month for the Irish Open where there was no home cooking for McIlroy; a final-round 65 from Rasmus Højgaard was enough to clip the local lad by one. One week later, McIlroy fell in a playoff to Billy Horschel at the BMW PGA Championship after failing to make birdie on the gettable par-5 18th in regulation.
"I feel like I've been golf's 'Nearly Man' for the last three years," McIlroy said after the Olympics. "I obviously want that tide to turn and go from the 'Nearly Man' to back to winning golf tournaments. It's all well and good saying I'm close and close and close. Once I actually step through the threshold and turn these near misses and close calls into wins, that's what I need to do."
McIlroy added his 12th top-five finish worldwide at last week's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship for good measure and made it so a top-10 finish this week would be all that is required to secure the Harry Vardon Trophy. It would be a fitting end for McIlroy if he were to raise the monstrous trophy once again come Sunday and would serve as a testament to his consistency -- which all too often has been overlooked.
In a season where his approach numbers were their lowest since his rookie year on the PGA Tour, McIlroy still contended for tournaments more times than not. In a season where many will remember the agonizing losses, McIlroy still won three times. In a season dominated by Americans, McIlroy proved he is still the best European golfer on the planet.
"I think Rory has had a great year," Tommy Fleetwood said. "Of course, I think it's easy for everyone to look at what could have happened if things go a little different way. But, at the same time, you only get to talk about those things if he is consistently up there with a chance of winning week-in, week-out. He's shown amazing consistency. So close to winning a major; so close to winning a bunch of events while winning a few at the same time.
"You know, it's obviously not over yet, but he's in with a very good chance and he has a chance of winning another Race to Dubai title. Of course, Rory is held to a higher standard than pretty much everybody else in the world of golf. But I think he's shown amazing golf again this year, and he's shown why he's one of the best to ever do it."