There have been eight first-time winners on the PGA Tour this season, but one shouldn't necessarily expect there to be a ninth at the 2024 Memorial Tournament. That's because none of those previous eight have come at the six signature events that have already taken place. Familiar names like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama have been signature tournament winners this year, as those boast the strongest of fields. Nine of the top 10 ranked players in the world will tee off at the Memorial Tournament 2024 when play begins on Thursday at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
Scheffler has four wins this season and is the +360 favorite according to the 2024 Memorial Tournament odds. With two wins over his last four starts, McIlroy is at +800, with PGA champion Xander Schauffele rounding out the top three choices at +900. Tommy Fleetwood has the shortest odds (+3500) amongst anyone who has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but the Englishman does have 10 victories worldwide. Before making any 2024 Memorial Tournament picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000. And at the 2024 PGA Championship, the model correctly called Xander Schauffele's first major victory heading into the weekend.
The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2024 Memorial Tournament field is finalized, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 Memorial Tournament predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Memorial Tournament 2024: Collin Morikawa, who was two strokes off the lead heading into the final round before withdrawing last year, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top five. Morikawa has gone winless in his first 13 tournaments in 2024 after picking up just one win in 25 events last year. He continues to make the cut and contend in most of his appearances, but he has been unable to get across the finish line.
In fact, he has not finished better than T-3 (Masters) this season, and he missed the cut in the Memorial Tournament two years ago. He ranks outside the top 115 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting and driving distance, while also ranking 105th in greens in regulation percentage. The model does not like his chance of breaking his winless drought this week, even though he is among the 2024 Memorial Tournament favorites at +1400. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a +2500 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
In order to score well at Muirfield Village, players will need to be extremely accurate with their irons. Thomas enters this week's event ranked seventh in strokes gained: approach to green (0.697). He's also been effective off the tee, ranking 22nd in driving distance (308.1) and 38th in total driving (132). His ability to constantly put himself in advantageous positions has the 31-year-old ranked seventh in birdie average (4.43) and 17th in scoring average (69.57). Those impressive stats, plus his long odds, make him a strong value pick for your 2024 Memorial Tournament bets. See who else to back here.
How to make 2024 Memorial Tournament picks
The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 Memorial Tournament, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Memorial Tournament 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Memorial Tournament leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.
2024 Memorial Tournament odds, field
Get full 2024 Memorial Tournament picks, best bets and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler +360
Rory McIlroy +800
Xander Schauffele +900
Collin Morikawa +1400
Viktor Hovland +1800
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Justin Thomas +2500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Tommy Fleetwood +3500
Max Homa +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Sahith Theegala +4000
Jordan Spieth +4500
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Byeong Hun An +5000
Tony Finau +5500
Sungjae Im +5500
Si Woo Kim +5500
Russell Henley +5500
Corey Conners +5500
Cameron Young +5500
Tom Kim +6000
Sam Burns +6000
Jason Day +6000
Sepp Straka +6500
Keegan Bradley +6500
Will Zalatoris +7000
Shane Lowry +7000
Billy Horschel +7000
Denny McCarthy +7500
Brian Harman +7500
Tom Hoge +8000
Harris English +8000
Alex Noren +8000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Robert MacIntyre +10000
Kurt Kitayama +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Mackenzie Hughes +11000
Lucas Glover +11000
Justin Rose +11000
J.T. Poston +11000
Thomas Detry +13000
Taylor Moore +13000
Rickie Fowler +13000
Davis Thompson +13000
Chris Kirk +13000
Ben Griffin +13000
Austin Eckroat +15000
Taylor Pendrith +18000
Patrick Rodgers +18000
Andrew Putnam +18000
Adam Schenk +18000
Adam Hadwin +18000
Lee Hodges +20000
Jake Knapp +20000
Davis Riley +20000
Cam Davis +20000
Adam Svensson +20000
Victor Perez +25000
Seamus Power +25000
Nick Taylor +25000
Nick Dunlap +25000
Mac Meissner +25000
Eric Cole +25000
Matthieu Pavon +30000
Chris Gotterup +30000
Brendon Todd +30000
Emiliano Grillo +35000
Matt Kuchar +40000
Pierceson Coody +60000
Peter Malnati +60000
Jackson Koivun +100000
Brandt Snedeker +200000
