Eight players from Mexico will try to win on home soil this week when 132 players tee off at the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta beginning on Thursday in Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico. They are led by PGA Tour rookie Raul Pereda, who earned his PGA Tour membership via his tie for fourth at Q-School last year. The other seven Mexican players in the 2024 Mexico Open field received sponsor exemptions. They are trying to become just the second Mexico-born player to win on the PGA Tour since Victor Regalado in 1978 at the Quad Cities Open.
Pereda is a massive +200000 longshot in the 2024 Mexico Open odds. Defending champion Tony Finau is the favorite at +650. Nicolai Hojgaard (+1600), Emiliano Grillo (+2000), Taylor Pendrith (+2200) and Stephan Jaeger (+2200) round out the top five choices in the Mexico Open field. Before locking in any 2024 Mexico Open picks, make sure you see the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from golf betting and fantasy expert Sia Nejad.
Nejad specializes in betting and DFS in golf, among other sports. He's had incredible success in the outright and first-round leader markets and in betting head-to-head matchups. He also has been on fire with his head-to-head matchups since last year's Charles Schwab Challenge, going 31-17-1 and returning 10.97 units over that span. That's a $1,097 profit for $100 bettors since May 2023.
Nejad also nailed 75-1 longshot Wyndham Clark as the outright winner at the Wells Fargo Championship. In 2023, SportsLine debuted "The Early Wedge," and in the first three months of the show, he hit two first-round leaders and three outright winners.
Now, Nejad has focused his attention on the 2024 Mexico Open field and has locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. See who they are at SportsLine.
Top 2024 Mexico Open expert picks
One surprise: Nejad is completely fading Emiliano Grillo, even though he is one of the favorites according to the odds at +2000. In last year's Mexico Open, Grillo shot a final round, six-under 65 to tie for fifth. The finish was one of eight top-10s he had last season.
However, Grillo's short game has not performed well early this season. He ranks 157th in strokes gained: around the green (-0.504). "He was excellent at this tournament last year, particularly on strokes gained: approach, but the odds are too short when we consider his spotty ball striking to start the season," Nejad told SportsLine.
However, Nejad is high on the chances of Keith Mitchell, even though he hasn't won since the 2019 Honda Classic. Ranked No. 73 in the world, Mitchell has just two top-25 finishes and one top-10 in five tournaments this season. He also missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last month.
But Mitchell, who's listed at +3000 in the Mexico Open odds, has always had a reputation as an excellent ball striker, and his stats so far this season reflect that. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off the tee (0.771) and 21st in strokes gained: total (.972). "[He] fits the bill in weighted strokes gained: off the tee, and I really like how his game is trending," Nejad said. See whom else to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Mexico Open picks
Nejad has locked in his best bets for the 2024 Mexico Open and is backing several longshots, including one that is priced at more than 50-1. This player "may be getting the ball striking back into form" and is a longshot who could surprise. You can see Nejad's PGA Tour picks only at SportsLine.
So which players should you target or avoid for the 2024 Mexico Open, and which player in the Mexico Open 2024 field could bring a huge payday at more than 50-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Sia Nejad's top picks for the 2024 Mexico Open, all from the expert who is 31-17-1 on his last 49 head-to-head picks.
2024 Mexico Open odds, field
See Nejad's picks, best bets and predictions here.
Tony Finau +650
Nicolai Hojgaard +1600
Emiliano Grillo +2000
Taylor Pendrith +2200
Stephan Jaeger +2200
Thomas Detry +2500
Thorbjorn Olesen +2800
Ryan Fox +3000
Patrick Rodgers +3000
Keith Mitchell +3000
Jake Knapp +3500
Erik Van Rooyen +3500
Davis Thompson +3500
Brandon Wu +3500
Ryo Hisatsune +4500
Mackenzie Hughes +4500
Cameron Champ +4500
Mark Hubbard +5000
Justin Suh +5000
Austin Eckroat +5000
Aaron Rai +5000
Doug Ghim +5500
Alejandro Tosti +5500
Michael Kim +6000
Maverick McNealy +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6000
Charley Hoffman +6000
Sam Stevens +6500
S.H. Kim +6500
Chesson Hadley +6500
Vincent Norrman +7000
Chris Gotterup +7000
Matt Wallace +7500
Scott Stallings +8000
Parker Coody +8000
Nate Lashley +8000
K.H. Lee +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Victor Perez +9000
J.J. Spaun +9000
Carson Young +9000
Alexander Bjork +9000
Sami Valimaki +10000
Garrick Higgo +10000
Vince Whaley +11000
Tyler Duncan +11000
Ryan Palmer +11000
Patton Kizzire +11000
Joseph Bramlett +11000
Joe Highsmith +11000
Jacob Bridgeman +11000
Harry Hall +11000
Greyson Sigg +11000
Chan Kim +11000
Carl Yuan +11000
Andrew Novak +11000
Robert MacIntyre +13000
Matti Schmid +13000
Jorge Campillo +13000
Davis Riley +13000
Bronson Burgoon +13000
Ben Kohles +13000
Aaron Baddeley +13000
Wilson Furr +15000
Robby Shelton +15000
Rafael Campos +15000
Patrick Fishburn +15000
Max Greyserman +15000
Justin Lower +15000
Jimmy Stanger +15000
Erik Barnes +15000
Dylan Wu +15000
Cristobal Del Solar +15000
Ben Silverman +15000
Adrien Dumont De Chassart +15000
Troy Merritt +18000
Trace Crowe +18000
Tom Whitney +18000
Norman Xiong +18000
Nico Echavarria +18000
MJ Daffue +18000
Matt NeSmith +18000
Mac Meissner +18000
Lanto Griffin +18000
Henrik Norlander +18000
Harrison Endycott +18000
Fred Biondi +18000
Francesco Molinari +18000
Chandler Phillips +18000
Stuart Macdonald +20000
Rico Hoey +20000
Pierceson Coody +20000
Peter Malnati +20000
Padraig Harrington +20000
Kevin Chappell +20000
Hayden Springer +20000
Chad Ramey +20000
Ryan Moore +25000
Ryan McCormick +25000
Roger Sloan +25000
Paul Barjon +25000
Martin Trainer +25000
Kevin Dougherty +25000
Josh Teater +25000
David Skinns +25000
David Lipsky +25000
Callum Tarren +25000
C.T. Pan +25000
Blaine Hale, Jr. +25000
Scott Piercy +30000
Omar Morales +30000
Chez Reavie +30000
Santiago De la Fuente +30000
Preston Stanley +35000
James Hahn +35000
Scott Gutschewski +40000
Roberto Diaz +40000
Tyson Alexander +50000
Philip Knowles +50000
Brandt Snedeker +50000
Ben Taylor +50000
Alvaro Ortiz +50000
Ryan Brehm +60000
Sebastian Vazquez +60000
Matt Atkins +80000
Rodolfo Cazaubon +100000
Renato Naula +150000
Raul Pereda +200000
Ben Sigel +200000
J.B. Holmes +250000
Austin Wylie +250000
Jose Antonio Safa +250000
