The 2024 Mexico Open comes on the 80th anniversary of the first edition of the tournament in 1944, but this year's event also is just the third to take place as an official event on the PGA Tour. It was granted that status in 2022, which is also the year it moved to Vidanta Vallarta on the Pacific Ocean coastline. Tony Finau enters the Mexico Open 2024 as the defending champion, after having finished runner-up two years ago. Low scores will be expected when play tees off Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET as the last two winners have broken 17-under-par.
As the reigning champion and highest ranked player in the field, Finau expectedly tops the Mexico Open 2024 odds board at 13-2. After him are Nicolai Hojgaard (16-1) and Emiliano Grillo (18-1). Brandon Wu, who has finished top-three in his last two starts at this tournament, is sure to attract lots of 2024 Mexico Open bets as a 35-1 longshot. Before locking in your 2024 Mexico Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model included Hideki Matsuyama in its best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the Mexico Open 2024 field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 Mexico Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Mexico Open 2024: Grillo, a two-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. Grillo recorded four top-25 finishes in his first five starts to open the 2024 season, but he's coming off a T-44 showing at the Genesis Invitational last week.
Grillo remains on of the best putters on tour, but he's been inconsistent with every other aspect of his game this season. The 31-year-old enters this week's event ranked 89th in greens in regulation percentage (70.05%), 98th in total driving (179), and 152nd in driving distance (286.4). He also ranks 100th in sand save percentage (50%), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard at Vidanta Vallarta.
Another surprise: Erik van Rooyen, a 40-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Among those in the 2024 Mexico Open field, van Rooyen ranks eighth in FedEx Cup standings and had a streak of 23 straight rounds under par that ended in his last start. Still though, he has three top 25s across five starts this season, including at both of the signature events he competed in. He also was victorious in his last start from last season, claiming the World Wide Technology Championship for his second PGA Tour win.
The South African ranks in the top 40 on tour in driving distance, strokes gained: off-the-tee and greens in regulation percentage. Vidanta Vallarta is known as a second-shot course, so van Rooyen's accuracy on approach shots should do wonders this week as his GIR percentage of 74.36% is ninth-best amongst the field. He also converts when he lands on the green, ranking 26th on tour in total putting (116.5) and 29th in putting average (1.724). Van Rooyen has a much better chance to win than his long odds imply, so he shouldn't be overlooked with 2024 Mexico Open bets. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2024 Mexico Open picks
The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 Mexico Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Mexico Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Mexico Open at Vidanta leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors, including last year's Masters and Open Championship.
2024 Mexico Open odds, field
See the full Mexico Open picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Tony Finau +650
Nicolai Højgaard +1600
Emiliano Grillo +1800
Thomas Detry +2500
Stephan Jaeger +2500
Thorbjørn Olesen +2500
Taylor Pendrith +3000
Keith Mitchell +3300
Patrick Rodgers +3500
Brandon Wu +3500
Ryan Fox +3500
Erik van Rooyen +4000
Jake Knapp +4000
Davis Thompson +4500
Ryo Hisatsune +5000
Cameron Champ +5500
Mark Hubbard +5500
Justin Suh +5500
Aaron Rai +5500
Austin Eckroat +6000
Mackenzie Hughes +6000
Doug Ghim +6000
Charley Hoffman +6000
Alejandro Tosti +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6500
Chesson Hadley +6500
Maverick McNealy +7000
Chris Gotterup +7000
Michael Kim +7500
Matt Wallace +7500
Nate Lashley +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Vincent Norrman +8000
K.H. Lee +8000
Sam Stevens +8000
S.H. Kim +9000
Alexander Björk +9000
J.J. Spaun +10000
Scott Stallings +10000
Joe Highsmith +11000
Joseph Bramlett +11000
Carson Young +11000
Victor Perez +11000
Chan Kim +11000
Ryan Palmer +11000
Carl Yuan +11000
Patton Kizzire +12000
Tyler Duncan +12000
Parker Coody +12000
Harry Hall +12000
Vince Whaley +12000
Jacob Bridgeman +12000
Garrick Higgo +12000
Robert MacIntyre +12000
Greyson Sigg +12000
Sami Valimaki +12000
Davis Riley +12000
Matti Schmid +15000
Andrew Novak +15000
Robby Shelton +15000
Aaron Baddeley +15000
Dylan Wu +15000
Ben Kohles +15000
Erik Barnes +15000
Ben Silverman +15000
Bronson Burgoon +15000
Jorge Campillo +15000
