Ludvig Aberg entered the third round of the 2024 U.S. Open as the solo leader, but he shot 3-over to fall five strokes behind Bryson DeChambeau (-7) entering the final round on Sunday. Aberg and Tony Finau triple-bogeyed the 13th hole to put themselves in a tricky situation. DeChambeau leads a major after three rounds for the first time in his career and will aim for his second U.S. Open title. He is the -110 favorite (risk $110 to win $100) in the 2024 U.S. Open odds, followed by Rory McIlroy (+330) and Patrick Cantlay (+700).
McIlroy hit just four greens in the back nine during the third round, but he is still in contention for his fifth major championship. Which golfers should you back on Sunday with your 2024 U.S. Open prediction? Before locking in any 2024 U.S. Open picks for the final round on Sunday, be sure to see the 2024 U.S. Open golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now with the U.S. Open 2024 final round approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top Sunday 2024 U.S. Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 U.S. Open on Sunday: Matthieu Pavon, who is tied for second place and is one of the top favorites, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top five. He got off to a red-hot start during the front nine on Saturday, grabbing the solo lead with three birdies and six pars. His fortunes changed on the back nine, as he carded a pair of bogeys to let the lead slip away.
The 31-year-old has never finished inside the top 10 at a major championship, so he does not have experience playing near the top of the leaderboard on a Sunday. He missed the cut in his last two U.S. Open appearances, and he only has one career PGA Tour victory. The model expects Pavon to fade down the stretch on Sunday, projecting that he ultimately finishes outside the top five. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, a 45-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. While most golfers in the field struggled on Saturday, Morikawa put together an impressive round to get back into contention heading into the final round. He shot 4 under in the third round, going 8-for-8 scrambling and draining four putts longer than 10 feet.
Morikawa had a stretch of six consecutive one-putts on the back nine and hit his final eight fairways, giving him as much momentum as anyone heading into his Sunday tee time. The two-time major champion is coming off a runner-up finish at the Memorial last week after finishing fourth in the Charles Schwab Challenge. He posted top-five finishes in the Masters and the PGA Championship, so the model likes his chances of putting together another impressive round on Sunday. See who else to back here.
How to make Sunday 2024 U.S. Open picks
The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds longer than 40-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.
2024 U.S. Open odds, Sunday favorites
Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here
Bryson DeChambeau -110
Rory McIlroy +330
Patrick Cantlay +700
Ludvig Aberg +1600
Matthieu Pavon +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Tyrrell Hatton +4500
Collin Morikawa +4500
Tony Finau +5000
Xander Schauffele +8000
Tom Kim +11000
Corey Conners +11000
Sergio Garcia +35000
Aaron Rai +40000
