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Congratulations, you're the 54-hole leader at the 2025 Players Championship. Your reward? Absolutely nothing. J.J. Spaun was brilliant on a brutal Saturday at TPC Sawgrass in securing a one-stroke lead with 18 holes to play, but the hard work has only just begun for the 34-year-old.
Only five of the last 17 Players Championship winners have entered Sunday's final round with the solo lead. In fact, since the championship was moved from March to May the 54-hole leader has gone onto win exactly one time with that honor going to Scottie Scheffler in 2023.
Rory McIlroy entered the final round in 2019 one stroke adrift. Justin Thomas was three behind Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood. Cameron Smith carded 10 birdies in the final round of his Players Championship victory and started the last day two off the pace. While Scheffler was five clear of the field in 2023, he was five behind Xander Schauffele in 2024. Scheffler won both.
Will Spaun convert his 54-hole lead into the biggest victory of his career? Absolutely possible. Will he? Well, that is a whole other question and one we will look into below as we identify five of the likeliest candidates that could possible chase him down across the final 18 holes at TPC Sawgrass.
2025 PGA Championship picks
| 1 | |
| McIlroy has the most experience, and his name carries the most weight. he appeared content with his third-round performance as all four of his bogeys were relatively soft and due to some short-game shortcomings. A four-stroke deficit is a perfect position from which the 2019 champion can pounce an early surge across an accessible portion of the golf course will give those groups behind him even more to think about amid what will be a nerve-racking day. Odds: 13/2 | |
| 2 | |
| Glover is the flusher in the chasing pack, and he has gotten to this point even without his iron play cooperating all that much. he has hit 11 fairways in each of the first three rounds and will give himself ample scoring opportunities from the short grass regardless of the conditions. Glover is currently 8 under on the par 5s and starts the final round three behind Spaun. Odds: 10-1 | |
| 3 | |
| Cauley is the closest pursuer starting on Sunday, but that feels a little misleading. He took advantage of an early tee time on Saturday to shoot 66 and rocket up the leaderboard. It's been a long road back since a 2018 car accident, and results have been mixed at best. A win would come out of nowhere, but the Players Championship has crowned those types before, and Cauley can certainly fill that role. Odds: 7-1 | |
| 4 | |
| The score was not impressive, but his temperament was notable. The young left hander got just about every bad break in the books from plugged lies in greenside bunkers to good golf shots being penalized instead of rewarded. Despite this, Bhatia kept his chin up and played his final 13 holes in even par to give himself a chance. It would have been nicer if he secured a par on his last hole, but his firepower will just have to do a little bit more work on Sunday starting four behind. Odds: 16-1 | |
| 5 | |
| Straka slowly snuck up the leaderboard on Saturday with a third-round 70 to reach 7 under -- one of three under-par rounds from the last 10 pairings on the golf course. Straka has transformed into a completely different player in 2025 as he leads the FedEx Cup race thanks to a win at the American Express and a slew of other top-10 finishes. Like Glover, he is going to give himself a ton of chances from the middle of the fairway in the final round, and if he putts like he did on Saturday, he will convert a good chunk of those. Odds: 20-1 | |
