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The biggest push on Moving Day at the 2025 Valspar Championship came from Justin Thomas as the 15-time PGA Tour winner shot the round of the tournament thus far with a 6-under 65. That vaulted him from T53 to T5, putting him firmly into contention entering the final round just two shots off pace.

Thomas explained Friday that he would have e been extra frustrated to miss the cut this week, noting the bunched leaderboard and tough scoring meant all one needed was one good round to get into the mix. 

"I would say [being on the cut line is] more nerve wracking than trying to win a golf tournament, just because -- especially a week like this, like I'm literally nine holes from leading the golf tournament right now, and I might not even get to play this weekend," Thomas said after finishing at 1 over after Friday and having to wait to see whether he would play the weekend. 

J.T. certainly took advantage of that opportunity Saturday and nearly proved his point about being only nine holes away from the lead. Now, he looks like the biggest threat in the chase group, one who can apply serious pressure to a relatively unproven leaderboard if he can put some birdies on the card early in his final round Sunday.

The presumptive biggest obstacle in Thomas' quest for a 16th PGA Tour title is Viktor Hovland, who backed up his 67 on Friday with a 69 on Saturday to join the leaders at 7 under.

Hovland spoke candidly Friday about how he's been battling his swing and felt like he has no control over where the ball's going, but he looked to be under control in the third round putting just one bogey on the card all day in a relatively stress-free effort.

Let's take a look at where the Valspar stands entering Sunday at Innisbrook.

The leaders

1. Viktor Hovland, Jacob Bridgeman and Nico Echavarria (-7)

Hovland is the unquestionable favorite entering the final 18 holes as he seems to be steadily finding his game. We know how good he can be at his best. Still, Sunday pressure is something he hasn't felt in a while, and for a player that's been struggling with confidence in his swing, his nerve will be tested being tied entering the final round with a share of the lead.

Echavarria looked for awhile Friday like he might go run and hide before crashing back to Earth on his back nine. That made his Saturday bounce-back 66 even more impressive. He has to be brimming with confidence as he gets set to play in the final pairing. 

Joining him in that final duo is Bridgeman, who looked like he was going to eject from the conversation at the midway point of his third round after being the 36-hole solo leader. After going out in 38 to fall four off the pace at one point, he clawed his way back into a tie for the lead with four birdies in his first five holes on the back nine, holding his nerve nicely as he seeks his first career PGA Tour win. 

Contenders

4. Ricky Castillo (-6)
5. Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Kevin Yu, Davis Riley, Jeremy Paul and Ryo Hisatsune (-5)

Castillo, to his credit, will not fade away after posting a solid 68 on Saturday to get into the penultimate group with Hovland on Sunday. It's the first time he's found himself in that kind of position, and we'll see how the 24-year-old former Florida standout's nerves hold up under the Sunday spotlight for the first time. 

Behind him are seven players at 5 under, headlined by Thomas, who will have plenty of confidence going into Sunday after his third-round 65.  Shane Lowry continues to loiter near the top of the leaderboard, and while he hasn't been able to put together a notably low 18 holes, his 29 on the back Friday is proof that if the putter gets hot he can be a threat. 

The rest of the 5-under group is fairly unproven on Sundays, but Paul has been incredibly consistent this week, Hisatsune was briefly up in the lead on Saturday, and Yu has put together back-to-back 68s. Riley is the only other one with wins under his belt, and he has been trending positively in the Florida swing after a rough start to the 2025 season. 

J.T., Jordan Spieth make Ryder Cup pitch

For the third straight day, Thomas and Spieth were paired together, and the duo used a comfortable pairing to make a big move on Saturday. Thomas' 65 was his lowest round ever at the Copperhead course, while Spieth shot a 4-under 67 to move into the top 20 in a typically Speith-ian day with seven birdies and three bogeys.

After the round, Thomas made a quick pitch to U.S. Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley. 

"Hopefully, Keegan was watching; I think we had a good best ball today," Thomas joked.

Editor's note: Bradley was in attendance at the St. John's vs. Arkansas basketball game in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

To J.T.'s point, the best-ball for their pairing on Saturday would've been an 11-under 60. They'll need more than one or two good days at Innisbrook to book their tickets to Bethpage Black, but if they can find that feeling from Saturday regularly this year, perhaps we could get the return of a U.S. Ryder Cup staple pairing this fall. 

A dunk fit for March Madness 

The difficult 17th hole at the Copperhead course gave up a hole-in-one for the second consecutive day. Saturday's came courtesy of Sam Ryder, who clearly had the perfect club for the 204-yard par 3 as he flew his shot straight into the hole to put a 1 on the card. That was a big help to his cause as he moved up to T24 at 2 under going into Sunday thanks in large part to his perfect tee shot on the 17th. 

2025 Valspar Chamionship updated odds, picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Viktor Hovland +330
  • Jacob Bridgeman +500
  • Nico Echavarria +700
  • Justin Thomas +800
  • Shane Lowry +1100
  • Ricky Castillo +1400
  • Kevin Yu +2000
  • Corey Conners +2200

I'm sticking with Lowry as the best value on the board just because I don't see him fading and he's capable of getting the putter hot. Of the lead group, Echavarria is the most interesting to me because, aside from the back nine on Friday, he's been fantastic all week.