2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks: Surprising predictions from model that's called 16 majors

The PGA Florida Swing continues on Thursday with the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club and Lodge. The Signature Event status for this tournament brings virtually all of the PGA's top players back after most sat out last week's Cognizant Classic. The top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are all in the field, and it's Scottie Scheffler who is atop the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds board at FanDuel Sportsbook.

He's the +340 favorite (risk $100 to win $340), followed by Rory McIlroy at +1000. Tommy Fleetwood (+1900), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200) and Xander Schauffele (+2500) are among the other 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational favorites. Before locking in any 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, entering any Arnold Palmer Invitational one and done contests, or making any PGA DFS picks on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites. 

New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your first $5+ bet wins:

Now that the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or golf DFS lineups. 

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the API 2026: Schauffele, one of the top favorites and a two-time major winner, barely cracks the top 10 of the projected leaderboard. He's a golfer to fade. The 32-year-old finished T7 at the Genesis Invitational last time out, but otherwise has finished T19 or worse in every other tournament this year. He's never finished in the top 20 of this tournament and was T40 after barely making the cut at this event last year. See who else to fade here. 

Another surprise: The model says Si Woo Kim makes a strong run at the title, even though he's a +2700 longshot. Kim has cooled a bit in his past two events, but he opened the season with four straight finishes of T11 or better, including a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open. See who else to pick here. 

New users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $100 in bonus bets at FanDuel if your first $5+ bet wins:

How to make 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

The model is also says three golfers going off at +3000 or higher will make a run at the top spot on the leaderboard. You can only see the model's picks here. 

Who will win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and which massive longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, favorites 

Get full 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, best bets and predictions here. 
(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +340
Rory McIlroy +1000
Tommy Fleetwood +1900
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Collin Morikawa +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Si Woo Kim +2700
Russell Henley +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Cameron Young +3300
Viktor Hovland +3500
Robert MacIntyre +4000
Chris Gotterup +4000
Ben Griffin +4000
Kurt Kitayama +4000
Min Woo Lee +4000
Patrick Cantlay +4000
Harris English +4000
Ludvig Åberg +4000
Jake Knapp +4000
Sam Burns +4500
Ryan Gerard +4500
Adam Scott +4500
Shane Lowry +4500
Rickie Fowler +5000
Nicolai Højgaard +5000
Justin Rose +5000
Justin Thomas +5500
Sepp Straka +5500
Maverick McNealy +5500
Jacob Bridgeman +5500
Pierceson Coody +5500
Jason Day +6000
Jordan Spieth +6000
Akshay Bhatia +6000
Keegan Bradley +6000
J.J. Spaun +7000
Corey Conners +7000
Nick Taylor +7500
Alex Noren +7500
Ryan Fox +7500
Keith Mitchell +7500
Michael Thorbjornsen +8000
Nico Echavarria +8000
Harry Hall +8000
Daniel Berger +8000
Ryo Hisatsune +10000
Sahith Theegala +10000
J.T. Poston +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Max Greyserman +10000
Matt McCarty +10000
Sungjae Im +10000
Taylor Pendrith +10000
Austin Smotherman +10000
Samuel Stevens +10000