2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop picks, predictions, free best bets: Golf model backing Matt Fitzpatrick
The SportsLine model reveals its top PGA Tour props picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 from Bay Hill, Florida, which begins Thursday
The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational begins on Thursday, furthering the legacy of one of the sport's top golfers from the family-owned Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club and Lodge. This tournament is one of the PGA Tour's Signature Events, meaning the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational field will be packed with elite players like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. SportsLine's model has made its projections for the third Signature Event of the year and is backing some of the biggest names in the sport to finish towards the top of the leaderboard and identifying the best 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational props.
One of the model's top 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets is backing Matt Fitzpatrick to finish in the top five (+450). The model is also backing Collin Morikawa to finish in the top 10 at +230 odds for 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bets. It's also backing Robert MacIntyre to win the group he's placed in for 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop betting at DraftKings. Before locking in any 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop picks or other PGA Tour bets on sites like FanDuel or DraftKings, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as this year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Top 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop picks
- Matt Fitzpatrick to finish top 5 (+450)
- Collin Morikawa to finish top 10 (+230)
- Robert MacIntyre Group C winner (+310)
Matt Fitzpatrick: Top 5 finish (+450)
Fitzpatrick is set to make his 12th appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he's finished in the top 10 in four of his last seven times. He finished second in 2019, which began a run of four straight top-10 results in the tournament. Although he hasn't finished in the top five yet this season, Fitzpatrick has made the cut in each of his first four events, finishing in the top 15 twice. He had a strong close to last season, placing in the top five in two of his final five tournaments. Given his finish last year and previous runs toward the top of the Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard, the model sees strong value in Fitzpatrick at +450 odds, which is being offered at FanDuel.
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Collin Morikawa: Top 10 finish (+230)
The 29-year-old finished T7 at The Genesis Invitational in his last tournament after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the week before in a red-hot start to the 2026 PGA Tour season. Morikawa had four top-10 finishes last year after eight top-10 results the year before. One of those top-10 results last year came at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he finished as the runner-up. He's finished in the top 10 in two of his last four Arnold Palmer Invitationals. The model projects another top-10 finish for Morikawa, seeing value in this at better than 2-1 odds. Caesars Sportsbook offers him at +230 odds.
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Robert MacIntyre Group C winner at DraftKings (+310)
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Group C features Patrick Cantlay, Ben Griffin, Harris English and Jake Knapp, with none as overwhelming favorites or longshots over the others. However, based on the model's projections, MacIntyre should be the clear favorite as the only golfer from the DraftKings grouping in the model's top 10. The 29-year-old finished T20 at The Genesis Invitational, a Signature Event in his last event, and he started the year finishing T4 at the Sony Open. MacIntyre was the runner-up in two of the biggest tournaments of the year last season (U.S. Open and BMW Championship), and he finished T11 at last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational. The model gives him a significant edge over the rest of this grouping at DraftKings.
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Want more picks for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational?
You've seen the SportsLine model's 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational props for this weekend. Now, see the model's full leaderboard for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026, including four golfers with odds of +250 or longer as top-10 contenders. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025.
