2026 Masters odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 4 straight winners

The 2026 Masters may look a little different to the most observant of golf fans thanks to a slight change at Augusta National. The 17th hole was extended 10 yards as the par 4 is now 450 yards in length. That is the only course change for the Masters 2026, compared to last year, as Augusta now plays at 7,565 yards. The length of the course is always a talking point as this yardage makes Augusta National the fifth-longest course in play during the 2026 PGA Tour season.

Scottie Scheffler ranks 37th on tour in driving distance but still comes in as the +500 favorite per the latest 2026 Masters odds. Play begins on Thursday, with other contenders including Jon Rahm (+950), Bryson DeChambeau (+1000) and Rory McIlroy (+1200). Aldrich Potgieter, who leads the tour in driving distance, is a +25000 golf longshot to win his first major. Before locking in any 2026 Masters picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. This same model has also nailed a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. 

Now that the 2026 Masters field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard. 

2026 Masters predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm

One shocker the model is calling at the Masters 2026: Rahm (+950), the 2023 Masters champion and one of this year's favorites, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top five of the leaderboard. Since winning two years ago, Rahm has just one other worldwide tournament victory over 72 holes. That lack of success has carried over to major tournaments, where he's simply been non-competitive more often than he'd like. Following the 2023 Masters, Rahm has four major finishes in 34th place or worse, compared to just one top 5. Given his such short PGA odds, the Spaniard is one to avoid with Masters bets.

The model has also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+500), a two-time Masters winner who is this year's favorite. Scheffler won in 2022 and 2024 with top 10s in each of his last four Augusta starts. He also won the PGA Championship and Open Championship last season as he was the PGA Tour Player of the Year for the fourth time in his career. However, Scheffler hasn't matched his 2025 success thus far and seems to be going in the wrong direction. He won his first start of 2026 and then had top fives in his next two, but he fell outside the top 10 in his ensuing start before not even placing in the top 20 in his last two starts. He then withdrew from the Houston Open, robbing him of potentially his last tune-up before the Masters 2026.

The model has also examined McIlroy's (+1200) chances of becoming the fourth golfer to win back-to-back green jackets. Not only was last year's victory the crowning achievement of McIlroy's career, but it was his first major victory in 11 years. This year, his long game metrics are strong as he boasts top-5 rankings in strokes gained: total, SG: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee, but he's lagging on the greens by ranking outside the top 100 in SG: putting. The Irishman has had limited exposure to PGA events this year, having completed just three tournaments with varying success. He was runner-up at the Genesis and placed 14th at Pebble Beach but was 46th at the Players after winning the event in 2025. See the full Masters projections from the model here.

How to make 2026 Masters picks

The model is also targeting two longshots of +4000 or greater who could make a stunning run at Augusta this year. You can only see the model's picks here. 

Who will win the 2026 Masters, which massive longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 Masters odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 16 golf majors, including three in 2025, and four straight Masters.

2026 Masters odds, favorites 

Get full 2026 Masters picks, best bets and predictions here. 

Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +500
Jon Rahm +950
Bryson DeChambeau +1000
Rory McIlroy +1200
Ludvig Åberg +1500
Xander Schauffele +1600
Matt Fitzpatrick +2000
Cameron Young +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Collin Morikawa +3000
Justin Rose +3000
Robert MacIntyre +3300
Patrick Reed +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Min Woo Lee +4000
Chris Gotterup +4500
Jordan Spieth +4500
Brooks Koepka +4500
Si Woo Kim +5000
Shane Lowry +5500
Russell Henley +5500
Viktor Hovland +5500
Akshay Bhatia +6000
Patrick Cantlay +6500
Jacob Bridgeman +6500
Nicolai Højgaard +6500
Jake Knapp +7000
Adam Scott +7000
Sepp Straka +7000
Tyrrell Hatton +7000
J.J. Spaun +7000
Justin Thomas +7000
Corey Conners +8000
Marco Penge +8000
Sungjae Im +10000
Sam Burns +10000
Harris English +10000
Cameron Smith +10000
Jason Day +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Brian Harman +12500
Max Homa +12500
Daniel Berger +15000
Rasmus Højgaard +15000
Ben Griffin +15000
Kurt Kitayama +15000
Aaron Rai +15000
Ryan Fox +17500
Casey Jarvis +17500
Keegan Bradley +17500
Dustin Johnson +17500
Alex Noren +17500
Harry Hall +17500
Ryan Gerard +17500
Sam Stevens +22500
Nick Taylor +22500
Michael Kim +22500
Wyndham Clark +22500
Max Greyserman +25000
Sami Valimaki +25000
Sergio Garcia +25000
Haotong Li +25000
Nicolas Echavarria +25000
Carlos Ortiz +25000
Aldrich Potgieter +25000
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +35000
Andrew Novak +35000
Tom McKibbin +35000
Michael Brennan +50000
Kristoffer Reitan +50000
John Keefer +50000
Matt McCarty +50000
Davis Riley +75000
Bubba Watson +75000
Charl Schwartzel +75000
Zach Johnson +75000
Angel Cabrera +100000
Mason Howell +100000
Fifa Laopakdee +100000
Ethan Fang +100000
Brian Campbell +100000
Vijay Singh +100000
Jose Maria Olazabal +100000
Brandon Holtz +100000
Naoyuki Kataoka +100000
Danny Willett +100000
Jackson Herrington +100000
Fred Couples +100000
Mateo Pulcini +100000
Mike Weir +100000